Alamo Group Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 199.50
| ALG Stock | USD 199.50 0.98 0.49% |
Closest to current price Alamo long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Alamo |
Alamo Target Price Odds to finish over 199.50
The tendency of Alamo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 199.50 | 90 days | 199.50 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alamo to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Alamo Group probability density function shows the probability of Alamo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.8 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alamo will likely underperform. Additionally Alamo Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Alamo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alamo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alamo Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alamo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alamo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alamo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alamo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alamo Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alamo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.80 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Alamo Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alamo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alamo Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alamo Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alamo Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 29th of April 2024 Alamo paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: ALAMO GROUP INC. ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL |
Alamo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alamo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alamo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alamo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 51.9 M |
Alamo Technical Analysis
Alamo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alamo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alamo Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alamo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alamo Predictive Forecast Models
Alamo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alamo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alamo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alamo Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alamo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alamo Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alamo Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alamo Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 29th of April 2024 Alamo paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: ALAMO GROUP INC. ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL |
Check out Alamo Backtesting, Alamo Valuation, Alamo Correlation, Alamo Hype Analysis, Alamo Volatility, Alamo History as well as Alamo Performance. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Complementary Tools for Alamo Stock analysis
When running Alamo's price analysis, check to measure Alamo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alamo is operating at the current time. Most of Alamo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alamo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alamo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alamo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alamo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alamo. If investors know Alamo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alamo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.078 | Dividend Share 0.88 | Earnings Share 11.36 | Revenue Per Share 141.749 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.08 |
The market value of Alamo Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alamo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alamo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alamo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alamo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alamo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alamo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alamo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alamo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.