Heineken Holding (Netherlands) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 74.52
| HEIO Stock | EUR 74.52 1.47 1.93% |
Heineken |
Heineken Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 74.52
The tendency of Heineken Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 74.52 | 90 days | 74.52 | about 41.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heineken Holding to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 41.5 (This Heineken Holding NV probability density function shows the probability of Heineken Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Heineken Holding NV has a beta of -0.23. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Heineken Holding are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Heineken Holding NV is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Heineken Holding NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Heineken Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Heineken Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heineken Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heineken Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Heineken Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Heineken Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Heineken Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Heineken Holding NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Heineken Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Heineken Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Heineken Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Heineken Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Heineken Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Heineken Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 12.79 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 109.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Heineken Holding has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Heineken Holding until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Heineken Holding's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Heineken Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Heineken to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Heineken Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 65.0% of Heineken Holding shares are held by company insiders |
Heineken Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Heineken Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Heineken Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heineken Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 287.6 M |
Heineken Holding Technical Analysis
Heineken Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Heineken Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Heineken Holding NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Heineken Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Heineken Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Heineken Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Heineken Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Heineken Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Heineken Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Heineken Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Heineken Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Heineken Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Heineken Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 12.79 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 109.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Heineken Holding has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Heineken Holding until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Heineken Holding's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Heineken Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Heineken to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Heineken Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 65.0% of Heineken Holding shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Heineken Holding Backtesting, Heineken Holding Valuation, Heineken Holding Correlation, Heineken Holding Hype Analysis, Heineken Holding Volatility, Heineken Holding History as well as Heineken Holding Performance. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Complementary Tools for Heineken Stock analysis
When running Heineken Holding's price analysis, check to measure Heineken Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heineken Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Heineken Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heineken Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heineken Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heineken Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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