Consumer Staples Select Etf Price Prediction

XLP Etf  USD 82.91  0.64  0.78%   
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Consumer Staples' share price is at 54. This entails that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Consumer Staples, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Consumer Staples' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Consumer Staples Select, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Consumer Staples hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Consumer Staples Select from the perspective of Consumer Staples response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Consumer Staples using Consumer Staples' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Consumer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Consumer Staples' stock price.

Consumer Staples Implied Volatility

    
  0.21  
Consumer Staples' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Consumer Staples Select stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Consumer Staples' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Consumer Staples stock will not fluctuate a lot when Consumer Staples' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Consumer Staples to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Consumer because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Consumer Staples after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 82.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Consumer contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Consumer Staples Select will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0131% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Consumer Staples trading at USD 82.91, that is roughly USD 0.0109 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Consumer Staples' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Consumer Staples Select options at the current volatility level of 0.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Consumer Staples Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
81.1281.9191.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
83.3284.1184.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
75.3779.0382.70
Details

Consumer Staples After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Consumer Staples at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Consumer Staples or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Consumer Staples, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Consumer Staples Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Consumer Staples' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Consumer Staples' historical news coverage. Consumer Staples' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.06 and 83.64, respectively. We have considered Consumer Staples' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
82.91
82.85
After-hype Price
83.64
Upside
Consumer Staples is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Consumer Staples Select is based on 3 months time horizon.

Consumer Staples Etf Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Consumer Staples is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Consumer Staples backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Consumer Staples, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
0.79
  0.06 
  0.04 
3 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
82.91
82.85
0.07 
112.86  
Notes

Consumer Staples Hype Timeline

On the 24th of January Consumer Staples Select is traded for 82.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Consumer is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 82.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 112.86%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Consumer Staples is about 159.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 82.95. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.58. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Consumer Staples Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Consumer Staples Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Consumer Staples' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Consumer Staples' future price movements. Getting to know how Consumer Staples' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Consumer Staples may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VONVVanguard Russell 1000(0.70)3 per month 0.50  0.04  1.34 (1.05) 3.01 
SPMDSPDR Russell Small(0.49)7 per month 0.79  0.03  1.80 (1.37) 3.78 
IWSiShares Russell Mid Cap 0.21 8 per month 0.68  0.03  1.58 (1.24) 3.47 
DGRWWisdomTree Quality Dividend(0.70)11 per month 0.51 (0.08) 0.90 (0.95) 2.88 
SPEMSPDR Portfolio Emerging 0.10 9 per month 0.49  0.01  1.10 (1.01) 2.92 
VFHVanguard Financials Index 0.42 4 per month 0.92 (0.05) 1.40 (1.74) 4.47 
ESGUiShares ESG Aware 3.63 8 per month 0.82 (0.05) 1.14 (1.25) 3.72 
VHTVanguard Health Care(0.70)8 per month 0.40  0.1  1.94 (1.04) 3.83 
VHCIXVanguard Health Care 0.17 1 per month 0.50  0.06  1.96 (1.02) 4.43 
IWOiShares Russell 2000 3.02 6 per month 1.39  0.01  1.91 (2.14) 5.52 

Consumer Staples Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Consumer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Consumer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Consumer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Consumer Staples Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Consumer Staples stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Consumer Staples Select, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Consumer Staples based on analysis of Consumer Staples hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Consumer Staples's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Consumer Staples's related companies.

Pair Trading with Consumer Staples

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Consumer Staples position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Consumer Staples will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Consumer Etf

  0.99VDC Vanguard Consumer StaplesPairCorr
  0.83IYK iShares Consumer StaplesPairCorr
  0.99KXI iShares Global ConsumerPairCorr
  0.87FSTA Fidelity MSCI ConsumerPairCorr
  0.85FTXG First Trust NasdaqPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Consumer Staples could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Consumer Staples when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Consumer Staples - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Consumer Staples Select to buy it.
The correlation of Consumer Staples is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Consumer Staples moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Consumer Staples Select moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Consumer Staples can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Consumer Staples Select is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Consumer Etf is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Consumer Staples Select Etf. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Consumer Staples Select Etf:
Check out Consumer Staples Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
The market value of Consumer Staples Select is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Consumer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Consumer Staples' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Consumer Staples' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Consumer Staples' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Consumer Staples' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Consumer Staples' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Consumer Staples is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Consumer Staples' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.