Advance Auto Parts Stock Z Score

AAP Stock

USD 78.69 1.49 1.93%

Altman Z Score is one of the simplest fundamental models to determine how likely your company is to fail. The module uses available fundamental data of a given equity to approximate the Altman Z score. Altman Z Score is determined by evaluating five fundamental price points available from the company's current public disclosure documents. Check out Advance Auto Piotroski F Score and Advance Auto Valuation analysis.

At this time, Advance Auto's Net Working Capital is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 04/20/2024, Capital Lease Obligations is likely to grow to about 2.4 B, while Capital Stock is likely to drop 6,400. At this time, Advance Auto's Interest Expense is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 04/20/2024, EBITDA is likely to grow to about 733.5 M, while Total Revenue is likely to drop slightly above 7.2 B.

Advance Auto Parts Company Z Score Analysis

Advance Auto's Z-Score is a simple linear, multi-factor model that measures the financial health and economic stability of a company. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm going into bankruptcy within next 24 months or two fiscal years from the day stated on the accounting statements used to calculate it. The model uses five fundamental business ratios that are weighted according to algorithm of Professor Edward Altman who developed it in the late 1960s at New York University..

Z Score

Sum Of

5 Factors

More About Z Score | All Equity Analysis

First Factor

1.2 * (

Working Capital

/

Total Assets )

Second Factor

1.4 * (

Retained Earnings

/

Total Assets )

Thrid Factor

3.3 * (

EBITAD

/

Total Assets )

Fouth Factor

0.6 * (

Market Value of Equity

/

Total Liabilities )

Fifth Factor

0.99 * (

Revenue

/

Total Assets )

Advance Z Score Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Advance Auto is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Advance Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Z Score. Since Advance Auto's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Advance Auto's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Advance Auto's interrelated accounts and indicators.

	Total Assets	Total Stockholder Equity	Net Debt	Total Liab	Total Current Assets	Current Deferred Revenue	Retained Earnings	Accounts Payable	Long Term Debt	Net Receivables	Short Term Debt	Common Stock	Property Plant Equipment	Treasury Stock	Good Will	Intangible Assets	Net Tangible Assets	Long Term Debt Total	Capital Surpluse	Deferred Long Term Liab	Short Long Term Debt	Cash And Equivalents	Net Invested Capital	Net Working Capital	Capital Stock
Total Assets		0.72	0.87	0.98	0.8	-0.43	0.95	0.82	0.68	0.97	0.78	-0.56	0.69	-0.65	0.76	0.73	0.52	0.46	0.88	0.71	0.83	0.57	-0.43	-0.74	-0.49
Total Stockholder Equity	0.72		0.33	0.56	0.92	-0.4	0.69	0.82	0.25	0.79	0.4	-0.57	0.1	-0.17	0.88	0.83	0.63	0.37	0.61	0.8	0.37	0.67	-0.14	-0.26	0.11
Net Debt	0.87	0.33		0.95	0.49	-0.4	0.84	0.61	0.68	0.79	0.83	-0.3	0.84	-0.81	0.51	0.52	0.33	0.29	0.82	0.48	0.92	0.28	-0.47	-0.9	-0.65
Total Liab	0.98	0.56	0.95		0.69	-0.4	0.92	0.76	0.73	0.91	0.81	-0.5	0.8	-0.73	0.65	0.63	0.42	0.44	0.88	0.61	0.89	0.46	-0.47	-0.82	-0.59
Total Current Assets	0.8	0.92	0.49	0.69		-0.31	0.74	0.97	0.43	0.83	0.44	-0.66	0.3	-0.32	0.89	0.82	0.45	0.58	0.78	0.77	0.47	0.53	-0.2	-0.41	0.05
Current Deferred Revenue	-0.43	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.31		-0.47	-0.27	0.12	-0.36	-0.81	-0.05	0.03	0.46	-0.23	-0.26	-0.85	0.23	-0.43	-0.25	-0.67	-0.57	0.47	0.47	0.03
Retained Earnings	0.95	0.69	0.84	0.92	0.74	-0.47		0.77	0.51	0.88	0.77	-0.52	0.68	-0.79	0.68	0.62	0.55	0.27	0.89	0.69	0.84	0.63	-0.46	-0.77	-0.44
Accounts Payable	0.82	0.82	0.61	0.76	0.97	-0.27	0.77		0.47	0.83	0.48	-0.67	0.41	-0.45	0.86	0.82	0.36	0.57	0.83	0.75	0.55	0.38	-0.25	-0.55	0.0
Long Term Debt	0.68	0.25	0.68	0.73	0.43	0.12	0.51	0.47		0.7	0.36	-0.34	0.73	-0.29	0.52	0.5	-0.09	0.73	0.54	0.32	0.44	0.18	-0.18	-0.39	-0.69
Net Receivables	0.97	0.79	0.79	0.91	0.83	-0.36	0.88	0.83	0.7		0.67	-0.53	0.58	-0.49	0.88	0.85	0.49	0.5	0.81	0.79	0.7	0.57	-0.38	-0.6	-0.42
Short Term Debt	0.78	0.4	0.83	0.81	0.44	-0.81	0.77	0.48	0.36	0.67		-0.19	0.53	-0.74	0.37	0.39	0.7	0.04	0.73	0.42	0.95	0.5	-0.52	-0.8	-0.5
Common Stock	-0.56	-0.57	-0.3	-0.5	-0.66	-0.05	-0.52	-0.67	-0.34	-0.53	-0.19		-0.3	0.23	-0.46	-0.4	-0.14	-0.53	-0.39	-0.36	-0.22	-0.23	0.1	0.19	0.1
Property Plant Equipment	0.69	0.1	0.84	0.8	0.3	0.03	0.68	0.41	0.73	0.58	0.53	-0.3		-0.68	0.26	0.21	-0.03	0.32	0.7	0.32	0.7	0.13	-0.21	-0.74	-0.8
Treasury Stock	-0.65	-0.17	-0.81	-0.73	-0.32	0.46	-0.79	-0.45	-0.29	-0.49	-0.74	0.23	-0.68		-0.22	-0.19	-0.3	0.01	-0.73	-0.3	-0.84	-0.33	0.58	0.85	0.45
Good Will	0.76	0.88	0.51	0.65	0.89	-0.23	0.68	0.86	0.52	0.88	0.37	-0.46	0.26	-0.22		0.98	0.4	0.51	0.66	0.82	0.39	0.47	-0.16	-0.35	-0.01
Intangible Assets	0.73	0.83	0.52	0.63	0.82	-0.26	0.62	0.82	0.5	0.85	0.39	-0.4	0.21	-0.19	0.98		0.42	0.47	0.59	0.77	0.4	0.4	-0.17	-0.35	0.01
Net Tangible Assets	0.52	0.63	0.33	0.42	0.45	-0.85	0.55	0.36	-0.09	0.49	0.7	-0.14	-0.03	-0.3	0.4	0.42		-0.2	0.4	0.46	0.57	0.74	-0.17	-0.32	-0.02
Long Term Debt Total	0.46	0.37	0.29	0.44	0.58	0.23	0.27	0.57	0.73	0.5	0.04	-0.53	0.32	0.01	0.51	0.47	-0.2		0.37	0.22	0.11	0.03	-0.03	-0.13	-0.12
Capital Surpluse	0.88	0.61	0.82	0.88	0.78	-0.43	0.89	0.83	0.54	0.81	0.73	-0.39	0.7	-0.73	0.66	0.59	0.4	0.37		0.69	0.82	0.46	-0.37	-0.8	-0.35
Deferred Long Term Liab	0.71	0.8	0.48	0.61	0.77	-0.25	0.69	0.75	0.32	0.79	0.42	-0.36	0.32	-0.3	0.82	0.77	0.46	0.22	0.69		0.45	0.43	-0.18	-0.4	-0.1
Short Long Term Debt	0.83	0.37	0.92	0.89	0.47	-0.67	0.84	0.55	0.44	0.7	0.95	-0.22	0.7	-0.84	0.39	0.4	0.57	0.11	0.82	0.45		0.44	-0.49	-0.92	-0.54
Cash And Equivalents	0.57	0.67	0.28	0.46	0.53	-0.57	0.63	0.38	0.18	0.57	0.5	-0.23	0.13	-0.33	0.47	0.4	0.74	0.03	0.46	0.43	0.44		-0.27	-0.19	-0.18
Net Invested Capital	-0.43	-0.14	-0.47	-0.47	-0.2	0.47	-0.46	-0.25	-0.18	-0.38	-0.52	0.1	-0.21	0.58	-0.16	-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.37	-0.18	-0.49	-0.27		0.52	0.25
Net Working Capital	-0.74	-0.26	-0.9	-0.82	-0.41	0.47	-0.77	-0.55	-0.39	-0.6	-0.8	0.19	-0.74	0.85	-0.35	-0.35	-0.32	-0.13	-0.8	-0.4	-0.92	-0.19	0.52		0.43
Capital Stock	-0.49	0.11	-0.65	-0.59	0.05	0.03	-0.44	0.0	-0.69	-0.42	-0.5	0.1	-0.8	0.45	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.12	-0.35	-0.1	-0.54	-0.18	0.25	0.43

Click cells to compare fundamentals

To calculate a Z-Score, one would need to know a company's current working capital, its total assets and liabilities, and the amount of its latest earnings as well as earnings before interest and tax. Z-Scores can be used to compare the odds of bankruptcy of companies in a similar line of business or firms operating in the same industry. Companies with Z-Scores above 3.1 are generally considered to be stable and healthy with a low probability of bankruptcy. Scores that fall between 1.8 and 3.1 lie in a so-called 'grey area,' with scores of less than 1 indicating the highest probability of distress. Z Score is a used widely measure by financial auditors, accountants, money managers, loan processors, wealth advisers, and day traders. In the last 25 years, many financial models that utilize z-scores proved it to be successful as a predictor of corporate bankruptcy.

Competition

Predict Advance Auto

In accordance with the company's disclosures, Advance Auto Parts has a Z Score of 0.0. This is 100.0% lower than that of the Specialty Retail sector and 100.0% lower than that of the Consumer Discretionary industry. The z score for all United States stocks is 100.0% higher than that of the company.

Advance Auto ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Advance Auto's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Advance Auto's managers, analysts, and investors.

Environment Score

Governance Score

Social Score

Advance Auto Institutional Holders

Institutional Holdings refers to the ownership stake in Advance Auto that is held by large financial organizations, pension funds or endowments. Institutions may purchase large blocks of Advance Auto's outstanding shares and can exert considerable influence upon its management. Institutional holders may also work to push the share price higher once they own the stock. Extensive social media coverage, TV shows, articles in high-profile magazines, and presentations at investor conferences help move the stock higher, increasing Advance Auto's value.

		Shares
Two Sigma Investments Llc	2023-12-31	1.1 M
Two Sigma Advisers, Llc	2023-12-31	1.1 M
Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc.	2023-09-30	931.1 K
Capital World Investors	2023-12-31	918.3 K
Geode Capital Management, Llc	2023-12-31	888.7 K
Federated Hermes Inc	2023-12-31	842.2 K
Ubs Group Ag	2023-12-31	811.7 K
Legion Partners Asset Management, Llc	2023-12-31	773 K
Marshall Wace Asset Management Ltd	2023-12-31	708.3 K
Blackrock Inc	2023-12-31	7.7 M
Vanguard Group Inc	2023-12-31	6.8 M

Advance Fundamentals

	Return On Equity	0.0116
	Return On Asset	0.0059
	Profit Margin	0 %
	Operating Margin	(0.03) %
	Current Valuation	8.63 B
	Shares Outstanding	59.61 M
	Shares Owned By Insiders	0.98 %
	Shares Owned By Institutions	99.02 %
	Number Of Shares Shorted	4.36 M
	Price To Earning	19.36 X
	Price To Book	1.67 X
	Price To Sales	0.37 X
	Revenue	11.29 B
	Gross Profit	4.96 B
	EBITDA	420.83 M
	Net Income	29.73 M
	Cash And Equivalents	269.28 M
	Cash Per Share	3.25 X
	Total Debt	4.45 B
	Debt To Equity	1.50 %
	Current Ratio	1.13 X
	Book Value Per Share	42.34 X
	Cash Flow From Operations	287.38 M
	Short Ratio	1.60 X
	Earnings Per Share	0.50 X
	Price To Earnings To Growth	1.34 X
	Target Price	66.21
	Number Of Employees	40 K
	Beta	1.2
	Market Capitalization	4.69 B
	Total Asset	13 B
	Retained Earnings	4.56 B
	Working Capital	1.07 B
	Current Asset	1.19 B
	Current Liabilities	722.58 M
	Annual Yield	0.01 %
	Five Year Return	0.74 %
	Net Asset	13 B
	Last Dividend Paid	2.25

About Advance Auto Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Advance Auto Parts's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Advance Auto using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Advance Auto Parts based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.

Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

Advance Auto Investors Sentiment

The influence of Advance Auto's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Advance. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Investor biases related to Advance Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Advance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Advance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Advance Auto Parts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Advance Auto's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Advance Auto's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Advance Auto's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Advance Auto.

Advance Auto Implied Volatility

44.55

Advance Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advance Auto Parts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advance Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advance Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advance Auto's options are near their expiration.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Advance Auto in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Advance Auto's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Advance Auto options trading.

Pair Trading with Advance Auto

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Advance Auto position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Advance Auto will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Advance Stock

0.83	W	Wayfair Financial Report 2nd of May 2024	Pair Corr
0.91	AN	AutoNation Earnings Call This Week	Pair Corr

Moving against Advance Stock

0.81	VSCO	Victorias Secret Financial Report 29th of May 2024	Pair Corr
0.8	AAN	Aarons Financial Report 22nd of April 2024	Pair Corr
0.79	BGI	Birks Group	Pair Corr
0.72	FNKO	Funko Inc Financial Report 2nd of May 2024	Pair Corr
0.68	ETSY	Etsy Inc Financial Report 1st of May 2024	Pair Corr

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Advance Auto could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Advance Auto when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Advance Auto - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Advance Auto Parts to buy it.

The correlation of Advance Auto is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Advance Auto moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Advance Auto Parts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Advance Auto can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.

Pair Correlation Correlation Matching

When determining whether Advance Auto Parts is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Advance Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock:

How To Invest In Advance

Details

Is Advance Stock a good investment?

Details

What is Advance Auto's Net Worth?

Details

Largest Automotive Retail Companies

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Check out Advance Auto Piotroski F Score and Advance Auto Valuation analysis.

Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

Complementary Tools for Advance Stock analysis

When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.40)

Dividend Share

2.25

Earnings Share

0.5

Revenue Per Share

189.925

Quarterly Revenue Growth

(0)

The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advance Auto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Macroaxis helps investors of all levels and skills to maximize the upside of all their holdings and minimize the risk associated with market volatility, economic swings, and company-specific events. View terms and conditions

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Advance Auto Parts Stock Z Score

Advance Auto Parts Company Z Score Analysis

Z Score

Sum Of

5 Factors

First Factor

1.2 * (

Working Capital

/

Total Assets )

Second Factor

1.4 * (

Retained Earnings

/

Total Assets )

Thrid Factor

3.3 * (

EBITAD

/

Total Assets )

Fouth Factor

0.6 * (

Market Value of Equity

/

Total Liabilities )

Fifth Factor

0.99 * (

Revenue

/

Total Assets )

Advance Z Score Driver Correlations

Advance Auto ESG Sustainability

Advance Auto Institutional Holders

Advance Fundamentals

About Advance Auto Fundamental Analysis

Advance Auto Investors Sentiment

Advance Auto Implied Volatility

Pair Trading with Advance Auto

Moving together with Advance Stock

Moving against Advance Stock

Complementary Tools for Advance Stock analysis

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