| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Gross Profit | 142.4M | 306.9M | 277.5M | 283.1M | Total Revenue | 294.7M | 306.9M | 309.0M | 330.0M |
Ownership Breakdown
| Institutions99.31% |
| Retail Investors | -1.05 | |
| Insiders | 1.74 | |
| Institutions | 99.31 |
What are the odds of AMERISAFE dropping in November?
 | By Vlad Skutelnik | Macroaxis Story |
AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF.US), a key player in the specialty insurance sector, has shown steady performance with a profit margin of around 16%. As we head into November, investors are weighing the company's recent financials and market conditions to gauge the risk of a decline. While the stock boasts a market cap of approximately $793 million and a solid return on equity of 17.8%, uncertainties in the insurance industry and upcoming earnings reports could influence its short-term trajectory. With an upcoming EPS estimate of 0.55 for the next quarter, traders should keep a close eye on how these factors unfold, especially given the current momentum indicator of 0.78. Currently, AMERISAFE’s Price-to-Book ratio is expected to edge upward slightly over the next few years. The company’s Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) is projected to rise to around 287 days, indicating longer collection times. Meanwhile, Operating Cash Flow per Share is forecasted to decline to approximately $1.20. Despite these shifts, interest in the insurance sector remains strong, making AMERISAFE a stock worth watching. Our optimism for a quick turnaround is rooted in its fundamentals and market positioning. For November, investors should keep an eye on key metrics like cash flow trends, DSO, and book value growth, as these will offer clearer insights into the company’s near-term prospects.
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin
Investing in AMERISAFE stock this November involves weighing its solid operating margin of 21.52% against a modest market risk adjusted performance of -0.07, which suggests some recent volatility. With an enterprise value of 768.1 million and a Wall Street target price of 52, the stock's current open price of 41 offers a potential upside, especially considering its focus on the Property & Casualty Insurance sector. However, the negative total risk alpha of -0.27 indicates there could be downside risks, making it important to monitor the company's risk factors closely.
Important Takeaways
AMERISAFE is currently trading at $35.88 per share, which many might consider overvalued given its modest growth outlook. Its Beta of 1.26 indicates higher-than-average market risk—meaning the stock tends to move more sharply than the overall market. When markets rise, AMERISAFE could outperform; however, during downturns, it’s likely to lag behind. Right now, the expected return stands at a slight negative of -0.057%. Before making any decisions, review key metrics like the maximum drawdown and analyze the relationship between the information ratio and accumulation distribution. These insights can help determine whether the company’s past performance is likely to repeat or if recent overvaluation might pose a risk.The performance of AMERISAFE in the marketplace will significantly impact your decision to invest in its stock. Revenue growth, profitability, competitive positioning, management quality, and industry trends can influence AMERISAFE's stock prices. When investing in AMERISAFE, there are several factors to consider and potential outcomes to expect. As a company performs well, its stock price may increase, allowing investors to benefit from price appreciation. However, AMERISAFE Stock can experience significant price fluctuations due to market conditions, economic factors, industry trends, or company-specific news. This is why investing in stocks such as AMERISAFE carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Stock prices can decline, and investors may incur losses if they sell shares at a lower price than their initial investment.And What about dividends?
A dividend is the distribution of a portion of AMERISAFE earnings, decided and managed by the company's board of directors and paid to a class of its shareholders. Note, announcements of dividend payouts are generally accompanied by a proportional increase or decrease in a company's stock price. AMERISAFE dividend payments follow a chronological order of events, and the associated dates are important to determine the shareholders who qualify for receiving the dividend payment. AMERISAFE one year expected dividend income is about USD3.16 per share.
Investing in dividend-paying stocks, such as AMERISAFE is one of the few strategies that are good for long-term investment. Ex-dividend dates are significant because investors in AMERISAFE must own a stock before its ex-dividend date to receive its next dividend.
This type of analysis is very useful when you want to generate a past dividend schedule and payout information for AMERISAFE. Then that information in the form of graph and calendar can be used to fully explain how Du Pont dividends can provide a real clue to its valuation.How important is AMERISAFE's Liquidity
AMERISAFE financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance AMERISAFE ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. AMERISAFE financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to AMERISAFE's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of AMERISAFE's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between AMERISAFE's total debt and its cash.
Another Deeper Perspective
AMERISAFE holds a total of 18.99 Million outstanding shares. The majority of AMERISAFE outstanding shares are owned by other corporate entities. These outside corporations are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to acquire positions in AMERISAFE to benefit from reduced commissions. Thereupon, institutional investors are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in AMERISAFE. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of AMERISAFE as this could imply that something significant has changed or is about to change at the company. Also note that nearly one hundred ninety-nine thousand four hundred two invesors are currently shorting AMERISAFE expressing very little confidence in its future performance.
A stitch in time saves nine, and this holds true for stock movements as well. With AMERISAFE's current ratio at 2.70 and a low beta of 0.3, the company demonstrates solid liquidity and stability, which can help buffer against sudden declines. However, its recent risk-adjusted performance of -0.03 and a maximum drawdown of 8.97 suggest some vulnerability if market conditions worsen this November. Given the stock’s modest earnings growth of 0.28 and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.88, the chances of a significant drop appear limited but not impossible. Investors should keep an eye on industry trends within the insurance specialty sector and monitor the Wall Street target price of 52 for potential shifts..
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