Should you add Jefferies (USA Stocks:JEF) to your portfolio?

Jefferies Financial Group's low Coefficient Of Variation of 451.55 and Total Risk Alpha of 0.0695 indicate a lower volatility, which could potentially provide a lucrative opportunity for investors seeking a stable investment with less market risk. Despite a minor price change of $-0.04, the firm's downside deviation of 1.19 suggests a relatively low potential for severe losses, further enhancing its appeal as a lower-risk investment option.

Main Points

Jefferies Financial Group operates within the Financial Services sector of the Financials industry.
Published over three weeks ago
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Reviewed by Rifka Kats

In the world of finance, volatility often spells opportunity. Jefferies Financial Group (USA Stocks: JEF), a prominent player in the Capital Markets industry, has been exhibiting low volatility, which could be a lucrative opportunity for investors. With a daily typical price of $45.32 and a valuation market value of $45.22, the company's stock is showing stability. Despite a slight negative daily balance of power at -0.09 and a period momentum indicator of -0.04, the accumulation distribution of 12.7K suggests a steady interest among investors. The analyst overall consensus leans towards a 'Buy', with one strong buy and one buy recommendation. The estimated target price ranges from a low of $36.4 to a high of $44.4, with a possible upside price of $46.5. However, investors should also consider the possible downside price of $44.22. With the fiscal year ending in December, now could be an opportune time to consider Jefferies Financial Group as a stable addition to your portfolio. Jefferies Financial Group's stock is less volatile than 10% of stocks, with over 97% of equities projected to yield higher returns in the next 90 days. Given the growing investor interest in the financial services sector, it's reasonable to focus on Jefferies. We'll assess whether the recent price volatility of Jefferies Financial indicates a potential surge in April. The company's extremely low volatility may not significantly affect its stock value, as we currently deem Jefferies Financial to be fairly valued. Our calculations suggest that the real value is nearing $43.80 per share.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Jefferies Financial or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Jefferies Financial may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Jefferies's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Jefferies Financial and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Jefferies Financial fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Jefferies Financial's Liquidity

Jefferies Financial financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Jefferies Financial Group ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Jefferies Financial financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Jefferies Financial's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Jefferies Financial's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Jefferies Financial's total debt and its cash.

Jefferies Financial Gross Profit

Jefferies Financial Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Jefferies Financial previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Jefferies Financial Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Jefferies Financial's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Jefferies Financial Volatility Drivers

Jefferies Financial unsystematic risk is unique to Jefferies Financial and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Jefferies Financial you can also buy Houlihan Lokey. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the financials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Jefferies Financial important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Jefferies Financial income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Jefferies volatility.
0.320.990.080.65-0.450.280.640.190.140.260.26-0.06-0.410.47-0.470.040.10.350.20.370.590.02
0.320.310.820.570.280.42-0.4-0.190.06-0.2-0.2-0.33-0.340.31-0.31-0.270.010.66-0.34-0.180.540.06
0.990.310.050.59-0.460.220.650.170.110.250.25-0.01-0.420.45-0.480.030.130.380.20.380.590.05
0.080.820.050.270.610.61-0.45-0.410.01-0.41-0.41-0.05-0.240.19-0.13-0.43-0.290.6-0.31-0.430.56-0.04
0.650.570.590.27-0.250.360.040.250.20.240.24-0.61-0.180.42-0.310.140.070.18-0.20.30.360.06
-0.450.28-0.460.61-0.250.26-0.59-0.05-0.04-0.62-0.620.21-0.1-0.16-0.02-0.320.090.23-0.41-0.13-0.140.46
0.280.420.220.610.360.260.07-0.120.4-0.28-0.28-0.17-0.390.44-0.3-0.27-0.270.17-0.02-0.210.44-0.23
0.64-0.40.65-0.450.04-0.590.070.120.220.330.330.38-0.060.04-0.020.05-0.090.00.410.320.25-0.22
0.19-0.190.17-0.410.25-0.05-0.120.120.160.180.18-0.41-0.330.32-0.480.590.7-0.460.240.84-0.550.57
0.140.060.110.010.2-0.040.40.220.160.380.38-0.290.110.070.050.360.01-0.140.190.29-0.16-0.01
0.26-0.20.25-0.410.24-0.62-0.280.330.180.381.0-0.360.240.130.150.550.03-0.360.490.2-0.07-0.28
0.26-0.20.25-0.410.24-0.62-0.280.330.180.381.0-0.360.240.130.150.550.03-0.360.490.2-0.07-0.28
-0.06-0.33-0.01-0.05-0.610.21-0.170.38-0.41-0.29-0.36-0.360.17-0.520.32-0.52-0.220.39-0.18-0.160.180.05
-0.41-0.34-0.42-0.24-0.18-0.1-0.39-0.06-0.330.110.240.240.17-0.820.940.19-0.54-0.06-0.26-0.07-0.31-0.22
0.470.310.450.190.42-0.160.440.040.320.070.130.13-0.52-0.82-0.840.090.33-0.130.430.050.31-0.01
-0.47-0.31-0.48-0.13-0.31-0.02-0.3-0.02-0.480.050.150.150.320.94-0.84-0.05-0.630.05-0.27-0.27-0.19-0.38
0.04-0.270.03-0.430.14-0.32-0.270.050.590.360.550.55-0.520.190.09-0.050.19-0.560.520.61-0.550.16
0.10.010.13-0.290.070.09-0.27-0.090.70.010.030.03-0.22-0.540.33-0.630.19-0.180.010.58-0.410.73
0.350.660.380.60.180.230.170.0-0.46-0.14-0.36-0.360.39-0.06-0.130.05-0.56-0.18-0.48-0.170.590.07
0.2-0.340.2-0.31-0.2-0.41-0.020.410.240.190.490.49-0.18-0.260.43-0.270.520.01-0.480.07-0.02-0.34
0.37-0.180.38-0.430.3-0.13-0.210.320.840.290.20.2-0.16-0.070.05-0.270.610.58-0.170.07-0.470.68
0.590.540.590.560.36-0.140.440.25-0.55-0.16-0.07-0.070.18-0.310.31-0.19-0.55-0.410.59-0.02-0.47-0.43
0.020.060.05-0.040.060.46-0.23-0.220.57-0.01-0.28-0.280.05-0.22-0.01-0.380.160.730.07-0.340.68-0.43
Click cells to compare fundamentals

What is driving Jefferies Financial Investor Appetite?

The entity reported the last year's revenue of 7.44 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 262.39 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.7 B.
 2020 2021 2022 2024 (projected)
Price To Sales Ratio1.161.381.110.67
Price Earnings Ratio5.6612.5529.6953.38
As Warren Buffet once said, "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." Jefferies Financial Group (USA Stocks: JEF) seems to have a firm grasp on their operations, as indicated by their low volatility, with a Beta of 1.35, and a downside deviation of 1.19.
This stability, coupled with a healthy current ratio of 1.62X, suggests that the company is well-positioned to meet its short-term obligations. Furthermore, with a market capitalization of $9.59B and a net income of $262.39M, the company appears to be in a strong financial position. Therefore, the low volatility of Jefferies Financial Group could indeed signal a lucrative opportunity for investors who prefer steady returns over high-risk ventures. .

Jefferies Financial has a small chance to finish above $46 in 2 months

Jefferies Financial Group's current Treynor ratio of 0.2 suggests a lower reward relative to the systematic risk involved. This ratio, which gauges the excess return per unit of risk, indicates that the stock may not provide significant returns for the risk assumed by investors. Based on the current market conditions and the company's risk-adjusted performance, Jefferies Financial Group's stock has a slim chance of exceeding $46 in the next two months. The company's stock has relatively low volatility, with a skewness of -0.42 and kurtosis of 0.29. Understanding market volatility trends can help investors time the market. High volatility in bear markets can impact Jefferies Financial's stock price and stress investors, often prompting portfolio rebalancing with different financial instruments as prices fall.
In conclusion, while Jefferies Financial Group's recent price rise may seem appealing, a closer look at the underlying metrics suggests caution. The stock's valuation real value stands at $43.81, lower than its current market value of $45.22. The analyst's target price estimated value is even lower at $40, indicating a potential downside. Furthermore, the analyst's highest estimated target price stands at $44.4, which is less than the possible upside price of $46.5. While the analyst overall consensus is a 'Buy', it's worth noting that there is only one strong buy and one buy recommendation, with one hold recommendation also in the mix. Therefore, investors should carefully consider these factors before deciding to invest in Jefferies Financial Group. .

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Jefferies Financial Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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