Fasten your seatbelts, investors, as we delve into the technical landscape of Mesa Air Group (NASDAQ: MESA). With a beta of 3.026, this stock is not for the faint-hearted, indicating significant volatility compared to the broader market. Currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, at 1.0348 and 1.0834 respectively, MESA's price action suggests a bearish trend. Despite a challenging fiscal year ending in September, with a net income loss of 91M, the stock's valuation metrics, such as a price-to-book ratio of 0.3285, might catch the eye of value hunters. Analysts have set a target price range between 1.82 and 2.22, hinting at potential upside. However, with a price action indicator of -0.01, caution is advised as the stock navigates turbulent skies in the passenger airlines sector. Many investors are steering clear of the passenger airline sector, but it's worth taking a closer look at Mesa Air Group to understand its current market dynamics. Recently, Mesa Air has shown signs of decline as investors grow more cautious amid heightened sector volatility. The company's stock has closely mirrored broader market trends over the past few months. Despite this, some fundamental indicators suggest potential short-term price movements that could interest investors. Notably, Mesa Air Group is set to release its earnings today, which could provide further insights into its financial health and future prospects.
Using predictive
technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and
diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mesa Air Group. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing Mesa Air stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build Mesa Air's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as
momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional
technical analysis and
fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of
Mesa Air's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Mesa Air, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect Mesa Air price patterns. Please read more on our
technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed
many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mesa Air's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Watch out for price decline
Please consider monitoring Mesa Air on a daily basis if you are holding a position in it. Mesa Air is trading at a penny-stock level, and the possibility of delisting is much higher compared to other stocks. However, just because the stock is trading under one dollar, does not mean it will be marked for deletion.
Most exchanges require public instruments, such as Mesa Air stock to be traded above the $1 level to remain listed. If Mesa Air stock price falls below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days, the exchange can delist it. Once the company reaches this point, they will be sent an initial price violation notice directly from an exchange.
How does Mesa Stands against Peers?
Analyzing Mesa Air competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Mesa Air across multiple sectors and
thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be. Check out
Mesa Air Competition DetailsMesa Air Gross Profit
Mesa Air Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Mesa Air previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Mesa Air Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Mesa Air's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Closer look at Mesa Air Downside Variance
Mesa Air Group has current Downside Variance of 14.53. Downside Variance (or DV) is measured by target semi-variance and is termed downside volatility. It is expressed in percentages and therefore allows for rankings in the same way as variance. One way to view downside volatility is the annualized variance of returns below the target.
Downside Variance is the probability-weighted squared below-target returns.
The squaring of the below-target returns has the effect of penalizing failures at an exponential rate. This is consistent with observations made on the behavior of individual decision-making under.
Downside Variance | = | SUM(RET DEV)2N(ER) |
| = | 14.53 |
| SUM | = | Summation notation |
| RET DEV | = | Actual returns deviation over selected period |
| N(ER) | = | Number of points with returns less than expected return for the period |
Let's now compare Mesa Air Downside Variance to its closest peers:
| MESA | 14.532756278768096 |
| AAL | 18.62 |
| LUV | 15.88 |
| UAL | 19.5 |
"Buy low, sell high" is a classic mantra, and for those eyeing Mesa Air Group (NASDAQ: MESA), the current technical landscape might just offer that opportunity. With a 52-week low of $0.68 and a high of $1.89, the stock is currently trading closer to its lower range, suggesting potential upside for risk-tolerant investors. The company's beta of 3.03 indicates significant volatility, which could appeal to those looking to capitalize on price swings. However, with a probability of bankruptcy at 49.78%, it's crucial for investors to weigh the risks carefully. Despite these challenges, Mesa's current valuation of $124.28 million and a price-to-book ratio of 0.33X might attract value investors seeking a bargain in the airline sector..
Mesa Air is projected to stay a bit over $0.98 in July
Mesa Air Group's stock is showing signs of potential stability, with its downside variance decreasing to 14.53, suggesting reduced volatility. This change indicates that the stock might experience fewer dramatic price swings, which could appeal to investors seeking steadier performance. With projections placing the stock just above $0.98 in July, this reduced volatility might make it more attractive for those looking for predictability in the airline sector.
However, Mesa Air Group is still considered a penny stock, which often involves speculative risks and potential artificial price manipulation. Investors should be cautious and thoroughly understand both the potential gains and risks. Watch for signs of artificial hype, such as spam emails, message board promotions, or sudden news releases. Always verify the backgrounds of company officers before investing in high-volatility or microcap stocks.
While timing can lead to profits, remember that artificially inflated prices often revert quickly. Sustainable shareholder value comes from genuine performance and strong fundamentals.While Mesa Air Group may have recently shared some positive updates, a closer look reveals that these developments might not be as promising as they initially appear. With an analyst overall consensus rating of "Strong Sell" and a naive expected forecast value of just 0.85, the stock's potential for growth seems limited. Furthermore, the possible downside price of 0.0096 underscores the risks involved. Investors should approach with caution, as the current valuation hype value of 0.96 suggests that the stock might be overvalued relative to its true market potential. Given these factors, it might be wise to explore other opportunities that offer a more favorable risk-reward balance..
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Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time basis at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real taste for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Mesa Air Group. Please refer to our
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