Avista (Germany) Market Value
| AV6 Stock | 31.80 0.20 0.63% |
| Symbol | Avista |
Avista 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Avista's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Avista.
| 04/22/2025 |
| 07/21/2025 |
Avista Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Avista's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Avista upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.29) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.78 |
Avista Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Avista's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Avista's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Avista historical prices to predict the future Avista's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.16) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.37) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 32.77 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avista's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avista Backtested Returns
Avista secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.14, which signifies that the company had a -0.14 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Avista exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Avista's Mean Deviation of 0.8766, risk adjusted performance of (0.16), and Standard Deviation of 1.17 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0063, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Avista are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Avista is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Avista has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to confirm Avista's total risk alpha, kurtosis, market facilitation index, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and rate of daily change , to decide if Avista performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.12 |
Insignificant predictability
Avista has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Avista time series from 22nd of April 2025 to 6th of June 2025 and 6th of June 2025 to 21st of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Avista price movement. The serial correlation of 0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current Avista price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.12 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.1 |
Avista lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Avista stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Avista's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Avista returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Avista has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Avista regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Avista stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Avista stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Avista stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Avista Lagged Returns
When evaluating Avista's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Avista stock have on its future price. Avista autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Avista autocorrelation shows the relationship between Avista stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Avista.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Additional Tools for Avista Stock Analysis
When running Avista's price analysis, check to measure Avista's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avista is operating at the current time. Most of Avista's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avista's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avista's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avista to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.