Ultra Jaya (Indonesia) Market Value
| ULTJ Stock | IDR 1,850 50.00 2.63% |
| Symbol | Ultra |
Ultra Jaya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultra Jaya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultra Jaya.
| 02/28/2024 |
| 04/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultra Jaya on February 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultra Jaya Milk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultra Jaya over 60 days. Ultra Jaya is related to or competes with Astra International, Telkom Indonesia, and Kalbe Farma. More
Ultra Jaya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultra Jaya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultra Jaya Milk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.011 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.55 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.15) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.3 |
Ultra Jaya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultra Jaya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultra Jaya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultra Jaya historical prices to predict the future Ultra Jaya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0383 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1193 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0112 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.57) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultra Jaya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultra Jaya Milk Backtested Returns
We consider Ultra Jaya very steady. Ultra Jaya Milk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0616, which indicates the firm had a 0.0616% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Ultra Jaya Milk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Ultra Jaya's Coefficient Of Variation of 2015.61, semi deviation of 2.08, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0383 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. Ultra Jaya has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.18, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ultra Jaya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ultra Jaya is likely to outperform the market. Ultra Jaya Milk right now has a risk of 2.38%. Please validate Ultra Jaya value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Ultra Jaya will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.16 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Ultra Jaya Milk has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultra Jaya time series from 28th of February 2024 to 29th of March 2024 and 29th of March 2024 to 28th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultra Jaya Milk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.16 indicates that over 16.0% of current Ultra Jaya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.16 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 736.0 |
Ultra Jaya Milk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultra Jaya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultra Jaya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultra Jaya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultra Jaya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultra Jaya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultra Jaya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultra Jaya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultra Jaya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultra Jaya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultra Jaya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultra Jaya stock have on its future price. Ultra Jaya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultra Jaya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultra Jaya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultra Jaya Milk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Ultra Jaya Correlation, Ultra Jaya Volatility and Ultra Jaya Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ultra Jaya. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Complementary Tools for Ultra Stock analysis
When running Ultra Jaya's price analysis, check to measure Ultra Jaya's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultra Jaya is operating at the current time. Most of Ultra Jaya's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultra Jaya's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultra Jaya's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultra Jaya to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Ultra Jaya technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.