Ultra Jaya (Indonesia) Volatility
| ULTJ Stock | IDR 1,850 50.00 2.63% |
We consider Ultra Jaya very steady. Ultra Jaya Milk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0616, which indicates the firm had a 0.0616% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Ultra Jaya Milk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Ultra Jaya's Semi Deviation of 2.08, risk adjusted performance of 0.0383, and Coefficient Of Variation of 2015.61 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. Key indicators related to Ultra Jaya's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Ultra Jaya Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Ultra daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Ultra's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Ultra Jaya volatility.
Ultra |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Ultra Jaya can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Ultra Jaya at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Ultra stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Ultra Jaya's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving against Ultra Stock
| 0.83 | PBRX | Pan Brothers Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | INDF | Indofood Sukses Makmur | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | GGRM | Gudang Garam Tbk | PairCorr |
Ultra Jaya Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Ultra Jaya's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Ultra stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Ultra stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Ultra Jaya's beta of -0.18 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Ultra Jaya stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Ultra Jaya Milk currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.01 and Jensen Alpha of 0.12. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ultra Jaya's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ultra Jaya's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Ultra Jaya Milk Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Ultra Jaya correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Ultra Beta |
Ultra standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.38 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Ultra Jaya's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Ultra Jaya's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in ultra stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Ultra Jaya.
Ultra Jaya Milk Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Ultra Jaya stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Ultra Jaya's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Ultra Jaya's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Ultra Jaya's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Ultra Jaya's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Ultra Jaya's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Ultra Jaya's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Ultra Jaya's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Ultra Jaya Milk Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Ultra Jaya Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ultra Jaya Milk has a beta of -0.1846 . This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ultra Jaya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ultra Jaya Milk is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ultra Jaya or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ultra Jaya's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ultra stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Ultra Jaya Milk has an alpha of 0.1193, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives an Ultra Jaya Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Ultra Jaya Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of Ultra Jaya is 1623.57. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 5.65 and standard deviation of 2.38. The mean deviation of Ultra Jaya Milk is currently at 1.75. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Ultra Jaya Stock Return Volatility
Ultra Jaya historical daily return volatility represents how much of Ultra Jaya stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company accepts 2.376% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.625% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Ultra Jaya Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Ultra Jaya or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Ultra Jaya may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Ultra's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Ultra Jaya and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Ultra Jaya fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize Ultra Jaya's volatility to invest better
Higher Ultra Jaya's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Ultra Jaya Milk stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Ultra Jaya Milk stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Ultra Jaya Milk investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Ultra Jaya's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Ultra Jaya's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Ultra Jaya Investment Opportunity
Ultra Jaya Milk has a volatility of 2.38 and is 3.78 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 21 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Ultra Jaya. You can use Ultra Jaya Milk to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences an unexpected downward movement. The market is reacting to new fundamentals. Check odds of Ultra Jaya to be traded at 1776.0 in 90 days.Good diversification
The correlation between Ultra Jaya Milk and NYA is -0.05 (i.e., Good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Ultra Jaya Milk and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Ultra Jaya Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ultra Jaya's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ultra Jaya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Ultra Jaya stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0383 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.56) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 2015.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Ultra Jaya Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Ultra Jaya as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Ultra Jaya's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Ultra Jaya's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Ultra Jaya Milk.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Ultra Jaya Milk. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for Ultra Stock analysis
When running Ultra Jaya's price analysis, check to measure Ultra Jaya's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultra Jaya is operating at the current time. Most of Ultra Jaya's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultra Jaya's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultra Jaya's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultra Jaya to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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