Aeluma Stock Performance

ALMU Stock   16.74  0.91  5.16%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Aeluma holds a performance score of 3. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.8, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Aeluma will likely underperform. Please check Aeluma's downside variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether Aeluma's price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Soft

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Aeluma are ranked lower than 3 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of comparatively fragile primary indicators, Aeluma unveiled solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(5.16)
Five Day Return
(18.97)
Year To Date Return
(5.96)
Ten Year Return
737
All Time Return
737
1
Will Aeluma Inc. stock reach all time highs in 2025 - Gold Moves Consistent Profit Trading Strategies - fcp.pa.gov.br
11/06/2025
2
Disposition of 2450000 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma, subject to Rule 16b-3
11/20/2025
3
Aeluma Revenue Growth Meets Heavy Spending, Hold - Seeking Alpha
11/28/2025
4
Disposition of 18500 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma, at 16.37 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/04/2025
5
Disposition of 1610 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma, at 16.49 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/05/2025
6
Disposition of 988 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma, at 16.87 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/08/2025
7
Disposition of 191 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma, at 17.06 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/09/2025
8
Aeluma Major Shareholder Mark Tompkins Sells 20,000 Shares
12/12/2025
9
Disposition of 30000 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma at 14.7 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/19/2025
10
Disposition of 35000 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma at 14.83 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/22/2025
11
Disposition of 15000 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma at 16.05 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/24/2025
12
Aeluma ten percent owner sells 997k in stock By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa
12/29/2025
13
Is Aeluma Inc. stock gaining market share - Trade Ideas Accurate Trade Setup Notifications - ulpravda.ru
01/08/2026
14
Disposition of 649570 shares by Lee McCarthy of Aeluma at 0.0061 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/14/2026
15
Acquisition by Paglia John Kenneth of 10000 shares of Aeluma at 2.0 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/16/2026
16
Disposition of 888 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma at 21.58 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/20/2026
17
Disposition of tradable shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma at 21.24 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/21/2026
18
Disposition of 962 shares by Tompkins Mark N. of Aeluma at 18.81 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/22/2026
19
Aeluma Major Shareholder Sells 620,700.00 in Stock
01/23/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow1.3 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-161 K

Aeluma Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,597  in Aeluma on October 28, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  77.00  from holding Aeluma or generate 4.82% return on investment over 90 days. Aeluma is currently generating 0.2156% in daily expected returns and assumes 5.3262% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 47% of stocks are less volatile than Aeluma, and 96% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aeluma is expected to generate 7.22 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 7.22 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.04 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Aeluma Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Aeluma Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 16.74 90 days 16.74 
about 45.12
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aeluma to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 45.12 (This Aeluma probability density function shows the probability of Aeluma Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.8 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aeluma will likely underperform. Additionally Aeluma has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Aeluma Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Aeluma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aeluma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.4616.7422.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.0414.3219.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.2914.5719.85
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.04-0.04-0.04
Details

Aeluma Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aeluma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aeluma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aeluma, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aeluma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.80
σ
Overall volatility
2.69
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Aeluma Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aeluma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aeluma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aeluma had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Aeluma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.67 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.78 M.
Aeluma generates negative cash flow from operations
About 28.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Aeluma Major Shareholder Sells 620,700.00 in Stock

Aeluma Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aeluma Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aeluma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aeluma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments15.7 M

Aeluma Fundamentals Growth

Aeluma Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Aeluma, and Aeluma fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Aeluma Stock performance.

About Aeluma Performance

Assessing Aeluma's fundamental ratios provides investors with valuable insights into Aeluma's financial health and overall profitability. This information is crucial for making informed investment decisions. A high ROA would indicate that the Aeluma is effectively leveraging its assets and equity to generate significant profits, making it an appealing investment. Conversely, low Return on Assets could signal underlying management issues in assets and equity, indicating a necessity for operational refinements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 159.25  141.56 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.09)(0.09)
Return On Capital Employed(1.86)(1.95)
Return On Assets(0.09)(0.09)
Return On Equity(2.14)(2.04)

Things to note about Aeluma performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aeluma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Aeluma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aeluma had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Aeluma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.67 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.78 M.
Aeluma generates negative cash flow from operations
About 28.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Aeluma Major Shareholder Sells 620,700.00 in Stock
Evaluating Aeluma's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Aeluma's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Aeluma's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Aeluma's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Aeluma's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Aeluma's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Aeluma's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Aeluma's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Aeluma's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Aeluma's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Aeluma's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Additional Tools for Aeluma Stock Analysis

When running Aeluma's price analysis, check to measure Aeluma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aeluma is operating at the current time. Most of Aeluma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aeluma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aeluma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aeluma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.