Li Autoinc Stock Price Prediction
LI Stock | USD 25.04 1.57 6.69% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
36
Oversold | Overbought |
Li AutoInc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Li AutoInc shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Li AutoInc's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Li AutoInc and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Li AutoInc's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Li AutoInc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Li AutoInc's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 20.694 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.39 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.83 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.55 | Wall Street Target Price 50.47 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Li AutoInc based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Li AutoInc stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Li AutoInc over a specific investment horizon. Using Li AutoInc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Li AutoInc from the perspective of Li AutoInc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Li AutoInc using Li AutoInc's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Li AutoInc using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Li AutoInc's stock price.
Li AutoInc Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Li AutoInc's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Li AutoInc. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Li AutoInc stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Li AutoInc may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Li AutoInc and may potentially protect profits, hedge Li AutoInc with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 35.4603 | Short Percent 0.0521 | Short Ratio 2.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 25.4 M | 50 Day MA 32.958 |
Li AutoInc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Li AutoInc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Li AutoInc. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Li AutoInc can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Li AutoInc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Li AutoInc's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Li AutoInc.
Li AutoInc Implied Volatility | 76.21 |
Li AutoInc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Li AutoInc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Li AutoInc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Li AutoInc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Li AutoInc's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Li AutoInc. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Li AutoInc to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Li AutoInc because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Li AutoInc after-hype prediction price | USD 25.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Li AutoInc contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Li AutoInc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.76% per day over the life of the 2024-05-03 option contract. With Li AutoInc trading at USD 25.04, that is roughly USD 1.19 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Li AutoInc's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Li AutoInc options at the current volatility level of 76.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Li AutoInc |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Li AutoInc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Li AutoInc After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Li AutoInc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Li AutoInc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Li AutoInc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Li AutoInc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Li AutoInc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Li AutoInc's historical news coverage. Li AutoInc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.00 and 30.02, respectively. We have considered Li AutoInc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Li AutoInc is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Li AutoInc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Li AutoInc Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Li AutoInc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Li AutoInc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Li AutoInc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 4.97 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.04 | 25.01 | 0.12 |
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Li AutoInc Hype Timeline
As of April 29, 2024 Li AutoInc is listed for 25.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Li AutoInc is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 25.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Li AutoInc is about 2325.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.05. The book value of the company was now reported as 60.58. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.99. Li AutoInc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Li AutoInc Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Li AutoInc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Li AutoInc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Li AutoInc's future price movements. Getting to know how Li AutoInc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Li AutoInc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
NIO | Nio Class A | 0.10 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.89 | (6.32) | 19.93 | |
RIVN | Rivian Automotive | 0.32 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.10 | (8.00) | 31.80 | |
LCID | Lucid Group | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.88 | (5.67) | 43.93 | |
TSLA | Tesla Inc | 0.37 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.97 | (4.90) | 13.38 | |
XPEV | Xpeng Inc | 0.27 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.02 | (7.79) | 21.48 | |
MULN | Mullen Automotive | 0.11 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 16.62 | (11.11) | 54.01 | |
BYDDF | BYD Company Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.00 | 0.01 | 4.85 | (3.84) | 11.44 | |
F | Ford Motor | 0.57 | 8 per month | 1.63 | 0.09 | 4.88 | (3.30) | 9.61 |
Li AutoInc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Li AutoInc price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Li AutoInc using various technical indicators. When you analyze Li AutoInc charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Li AutoInc Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Li AutoInc stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Li AutoInc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Li AutoInc based on analysis of Li AutoInc hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Li AutoInc's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Li AutoInc's related companies. 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 3.0 | 1.82 | 2.77 | 1.69 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 27.79 | 68.05 | 26.03 | 24.73 |
Story Coverage note for Li AutoInc
The number of cover stories for Li AutoInc depends on current market conditions and Li AutoInc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Li AutoInc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Li AutoInc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Li AutoInc Short Properties
Li AutoInc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Li AutoInc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Li AutoInc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Li AutoInc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Li AutoInc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 103.3 B |
Check out Li AutoInc Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Li AutoInc Stock please use our How to Invest in Li AutoInc guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
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When running Li AutoInc's price analysis, check to measure Li AutoInc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Li AutoInc is operating at the current time. Most of Li AutoInc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Li AutoInc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Li AutoInc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Li AutoInc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Li AutoInc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Li AutoInc. If investors know Li AutoInc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Li AutoInc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 20.694 | Earnings Share 1.53 | Revenue Per Share 125.874 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.364 | Return On Assets 0.0403 |
The market value of Li AutoInc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Li AutoInc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Li AutoInc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Li AutoInc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Li AutoInc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Li AutoInc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Li AutoInc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Li AutoInc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Li AutoInc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.