Lyondellbasell Industries Nv Stock Price Prediction
| LYB Stock | USD 99.52 0.45 0.45% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
LyondellBasell Industries stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of LyondellBasell Industries shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of LyondellBasell Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of LyondellBasell Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from LyondellBasell Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with LyondellBasell Industries NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting LyondellBasell Industries' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.24 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.25 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.79 | Wall Street Target Price 105.13 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.36 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of LyondellBasell Industries based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The LyondellBasell stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on LyondellBasell Industries over a specific investment horizon. Using LyondellBasell Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LyondellBasell Industries NV from the perspective of LyondellBasell Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards LyondellBasell Industries using LyondellBasell Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards LyondellBasell using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of LyondellBasell Industries' stock price.
LyondellBasell Industries Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in LyondellBasell Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards LyondellBasell. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of LyondellBasell Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long LyondellBasell Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about LyondellBasell Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge LyondellBasell Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 96.5175 | Short Percent 0.0219 | Short Ratio 2.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.4 M | 50 Day MA 100.9026 |
LyondellBasell Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to LyondellBasell Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in LyondellBasell. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding LyondellBasell can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around LyondellBasell Industries NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of LyondellBasell Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about LyondellBasell Industries.
LyondellBasell Industries Implied Volatility | 22.95 |
LyondellBasell Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of LyondellBasell Industries NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if LyondellBasell Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that LyondellBasell Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when LyondellBasell Industries' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in LyondellBasell Industries. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in LyondellBasell Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying LyondellBasell because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
LyondellBasell Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 99.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current LyondellBasell contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that LyondellBasell Industries NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.43% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With LyondellBasell Industries trading at USD 99.52, that is roughly USD 1.43 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating LyondellBasell Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring LyondellBasell Industries NV options at the current volatility level of 22.95%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
LyondellBasell |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LyondellBasell Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LyondellBasell Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LyondellBasell Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LyondellBasell Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LyondellBasell Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LyondellBasell Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LyondellBasell Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LyondellBasell Industries' historical news coverage. LyondellBasell Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 98.44 and 100.76, respectively. We have considered LyondellBasell Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LyondellBasell Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LyondellBasell Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
LyondellBasell Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LyondellBasell Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LyondellBasell Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LyondellBasell Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.14 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
99.52 | 99.60 | 0.08 |
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LyondellBasell Industries Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of May LyondellBasell Industries is traded for 99.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. LyondellBasell is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 99.6 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 154.05%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on LyondellBasell Industries is about 268.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 99.58. The company reported the last year's revenue of 41.11 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.12 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 6.6 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out LyondellBasell Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.LyondellBasell Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LyondellBasell Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LyondellBasell Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how LyondellBasell Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LyondellBasell Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IFF | International Flavors Fragrances | (2.53) | 10 per month | 1.98 | 0 | 2.93 | (3.42) | 8.58 | |
| CBT | Cabot | 0.54 | 12 per month | 1.09 | 0.17 | 3.21 | (2.33) | 10.40 | |
| WLK | Westlake Chemical | 1.35 | 8 per month | 1.84 | 0.01 | 2.47 | (2.70) | 10.04 | |
| APD | Air Products and | (0.16) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.10 | (1.56) | 17.06 | |
| LIN | Linde plc Ordinary | 1.21 | 11 per month | 0.53 | 0.09 | 1.63 | (1.20) | 5.35 | |
| PPG | PPG Industries | 0.81 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.69 | (2.06) | 5.27 | |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc | (0.38) | 8 per month | 0.64 | 0.11 | 1.55 | (1.61) | 10.87 | |
| SHW | Sherwin Williams Co | 4.53 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.81 | (2.12) | 6.43 | |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | 0.09 | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.09 | 2.06 | (2.04) | 6.49 | |
| DD | Dupont De Nemours | (1.16) | 13 per month | 1.07 | 0.09 | 1.60 | (1.84) | 10.59 | |
| RPM | RPM International | 0.37 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.52 | (1.77) | 7.90 |
LyondellBasell Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LyondellBasell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LyondellBasell using various technical indicators. When you analyze LyondellBasell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About LyondellBasell Industries Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of LyondellBasell Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as LyondellBasell Industries NV, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of LyondellBasell Industries based on analysis of LyondellBasell Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to LyondellBasell Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to LyondellBasell Industries's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0482 | 0.12 | 0.0521 | 0.0637 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.67 | 0.54 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
Story Coverage note for LyondellBasell Industries
The number of cover stories for LyondellBasell Industries depends on current market conditions and LyondellBasell Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LyondellBasell Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LyondellBasell Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LyondellBasell Industries Short Properties
LyondellBasell Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when LyondellBasell Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LyondellBasell Industries NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LyondellBasell Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LyondellBasell Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 326 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.4 B |
Check out LyondellBasell Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for LyondellBasell Stock analysis
When running LyondellBasell Industries' price analysis, check to measure LyondellBasell Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LyondellBasell Industries is operating at the current time. Most of LyondellBasell Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LyondellBasell Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LyondellBasell Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LyondellBasell Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LyondellBasell Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LyondellBasell Industries. If investors know LyondellBasell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LyondellBasell Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 5 | Earnings Share 6.48 | Revenue Per Share 125.589 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.0562 |
The market value of LyondellBasell Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LyondellBasell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LyondellBasell Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LyondellBasell Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LyondellBasell Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LyondellBasell Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LyondellBasell Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LyondellBasell Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LyondellBasell Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.