Ubs Group Ag Stock Price Prediction
| UBS Stock | USD 27.46 0.08 0.29% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
27
Oversold | Overbought |
UBS Group AG stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of UBS Group shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of UBS Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of UBS Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from UBS Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with UBS Group AG, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting UBS Group's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 13.673 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.95 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1 | Wall Street Target Price 32.49 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.2 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of UBS Group based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The UBS stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on UBS Group over a specific investment horizon. Using UBS Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UBS Group AG from the perspective of UBS Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UBS Group using UBS Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UBS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UBS Group's stock price.
UBS Group Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UBS Group's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UBS. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UBS Group stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long UBS Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about UBS Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge UBS Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 26.8638 | Short Percent 0.0038 | Short Ratio 4.45 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.8 M | 50 Day MA 29.584 |
UBS Group AG Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UBS Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UBS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UBS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UBS Group AG. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UBS Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UBS Group.
UBS Group Implied Volatility | 47.46 |
UBS Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UBS Group AG stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UBS Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UBS Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when UBS Group's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in UBS Group. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in UBS Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying UBS because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
UBS Group after-hype prediction price | USD 27.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UBS contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UBS Group AG will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.97% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With UBS Group trading at USD 27.46, that is roughly USD 0.81 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UBS Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring UBS Group AG options at the current volatility level of 47.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
UBS |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UBS Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UBS Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UBS Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UBS Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UBS Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UBS Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UBS Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UBS Group's historical news coverage. UBS Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.84 and 28.90, respectively. We have considered UBS Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UBS Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UBS Group AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
UBS Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UBS Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UBS Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UBS Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.53 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
27.46 | 27.37 | 0.04 |
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UBS Group Hype Timeline
On the 29th of April UBS Group AG is traded for 27.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. UBS is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 27.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on UBS Group is about 125.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.64. About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.07. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. UBS Group AG has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.59. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.45. The firm last dividend was issued on the 30th of April 2024. UBS Group had 2:1 split on the 10th of July 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out UBS Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.UBS Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UBS Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UBS Group's future price movements. Getting to know how UBS Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UBS Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTVRF | BlueRush | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 0.00 | (19.38) | 133.74 | |
| FHAGX | Fidelity Freedom Blend | (0.29) | 1 per month | 0.29 | (0.27) | 0.42 | (0.52) | 1.45 | |
| HPQ | HP Inc | (0.19) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.81 | (2.39) | 7.21 | |
| UCAR | U Power Limited | 7.43 | 8 per month | 10.29 | 0.12 | 14.26 | (13.45) | 9,494 | |
| JNJ | Johnson Johnson | 0.61 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 1.40 | (1.37) | 3.65 | |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 1.25 | 7 per month | 0.77 | 0.13 | 1.54 | (1.79) | 5.97 | |
| AL | Air Lease | (0.29) | 10 per month | 1.35 | 0.15 | 2.61 | (2.03) | 7.30 |
UBS Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UBS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UBS using various technical indicators. When you analyze UBS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About UBS Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of UBS Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as UBS Group AG, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of UBS Group based on analysis of UBS Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to UBS Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to UBS Group's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0191 | 0.0253 | 0.0168 | 0.016 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.95 | 1.98 | 2.55 | 3.63 |
Story Coverage note for UBS Group
The number of cover stories for UBS Group depends on current market conditions and UBS Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UBS Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UBS Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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UBS Group Short Properties
UBS Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when UBS Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UBS Group AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UBS Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UBS Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 316.4 B |
Check out UBS Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the UBS Group AG information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UBS Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for UBS Stock analysis
When running UBS Group's price analysis, check to measure UBS Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UBS Group is operating at the current time. Most of UBS Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UBS Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UBS Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UBS Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UBS Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UBS Group. If investors know UBS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UBS Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 13.673 | Earnings Share 8.45 | Revenue Per Share 12.565 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.363 | Return On Assets 0.0198 |
The market value of UBS Group AG is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UBS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UBS Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UBS Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UBS Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UBS Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UBS Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UBS Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UBS Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.