Valero Energy Stock Price Prediction
| VLO Stock | USD 165.80 1.33 0.80% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Valero Energy stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Valero Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Valero Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Valero Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Valero Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Valero Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Valero Energy's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.5 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.77 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.76 | Wall Street Target Price 189.07 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Valero Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Valero stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Valero Energy over a specific investment horizon. Using Valero Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valero Energy from the perspective of Valero Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valero Energy using Valero Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valero using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valero Energy's stock price.
Valero Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Valero Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Valero. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Valero Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Valero Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valero Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valero Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 138.2329 | Short Percent 0.0354 | Short Ratio 3.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.6 M | 50 Day MA 160.491 |
Valero Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Valero Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valero. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valero can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valero Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valero Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valero Energy.
Valero Energy Implied Volatility | 34.61 |
Valero Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valero Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valero Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valero Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valero Energy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Valero Energy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Valero Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Valero because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Valero Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 164.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Valero contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Valero Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.16% per day over the life of the 2024-05-03 option contract. With Valero Energy trading at USD 165.8, that is roughly USD 3.59 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Valero Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Valero Energy options at the current volatility level of 34.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Valero |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valero Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Valero Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valero Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valero Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valero Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valero Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valero Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valero Energy's historical news coverage. Valero Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 162.55 and 182.38, respectively. We have considered Valero Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valero Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valero Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valero Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valero Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valero Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valero Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.59 | 1.66 | 0.11 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
165.80 | 164.14 | 1.00 |
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Valero Energy Hype Timeline
On the 28th of April Valero Energy is traded for 165.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.66, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Valero is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 164.14. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 29.72%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.0%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Valero Energy is about 429.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 165.91. About 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Valero Energy was at this time reported as 79.05. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.21. Valero Energy recorded earning per share (EPS) of 20.38. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of January 2024. The firm had 1094:1000 split on the 2nd of May 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Valero Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Valero Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valero Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valero Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Valero Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valero Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | (0.39) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.93 | (2.15) | 15.60 | |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | 1.13 | 9 per month | 1.45 | (0) | 2.90 | (2.29) | 6.98 |
Valero Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valero price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valero using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valero charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Valero Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Valero Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Valero Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Valero Energy based on analysis of Valero Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Valero Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Valero Energy's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0312 | 0.0316 | 0.0183 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.34 |
Story Coverage note for Valero Energy
The number of cover stories for Valero Energy depends on current market conditions and Valero Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valero Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valero Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valero Energy Short Properties
Valero Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valero Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valero Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valero Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valero Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 353 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 B |
Check out Valero Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for Valero Stock analysis
When running Valero Energy's price analysis, check to measure Valero Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valero Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Valero Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valero Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valero Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valero Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Valero Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valero Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Dividend Share 4.13 | Earnings Share 20.38 | Revenue Per Share 391.036 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valero Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.