Birkenstock Holding Stock Forward View
| BIRK Stock | 37.72 0.15 0.40% |
Birkenstock Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Birkenstock Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Birkenstock Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Birkenstock Holding fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Birkenstock Holding's share price is approaching 42 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Birkenstock Holding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.827 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2505 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0331 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.4242 | Wall Street Target Price 59.6788 |
Using Birkenstock Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Birkenstock Holding plc from the perspective of Birkenstock Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Birkenstock Holding using Birkenstock Holding's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Birkenstock using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Birkenstock Holding's stock price.
Birkenstock Holding Short Interest
An investor who is long Birkenstock Holding may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Birkenstock Holding and may potentially protect profits, hedge Birkenstock Holding with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 47.0512 | Short Percent 0.1592 | Short Ratio 3.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.6 M | 50 Day MA 42.1042 |
Birkenstock Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Birkenstock Holding plc on the next trading day is expected to be 36.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.72.Birkenstock Holding plc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Birkenstock Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Birkenstock. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Birkenstock can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Birkenstock Holding plc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Birkenstock Holding's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Birkenstock Holding.
Birkenstock Holding Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
Birkenstock Holding's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Birkenstock Holding plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Birkenstock Holding's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Birkenstock Holding stock will not fluctuate a lot when Birkenstock Holding's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Birkenstock Holding plc on the next trading day is expected to be 36.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.72. Birkenstock Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 37.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Birkenstock contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Birkenstock Holding plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Birkenstock Holding trading at USD 37.72, that is roughly USD 0.0134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Birkenstock Holding's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Birkenstock Holding plc options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Birkenstock Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Birkenstock Holding's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Birkenstock Holding's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Birkenstock Holding stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Birkenstock Holding's open interest, investors have to compare it to Birkenstock Holding's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Birkenstock Holding is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Birkenstock. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Birkenstock Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Birkenstock price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Birkenstock using various technical indicators. When you analyze Birkenstock charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Birkenstock Holding Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Birkenstock Holding's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 378.4 M | Current Value 305.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 118.2 M |
Birkenstock Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Birkenstock Holding plc on the next trading day is expected to be 36.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Birkenstock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Birkenstock Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Birkenstock Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Birkenstock Holding | Birkenstock Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Birkenstock Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Birkenstock Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Birkenstock Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.83 and 39.40, respectively. We have considered Birkenstock Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Birkenstock Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Birkenstock Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.483 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9134 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0217 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.7162 |
Predictive Modules for Birkenstock Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Birkenstock Holding plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Birkenstock Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Birkenstock Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Birkenstock Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Birkenstock Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Birkenstock Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Birkenstock Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Birkenstock Holding's historical news coverage. Birkenstock Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.93 and 40.51, respectively. We have considered Birkenstock Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Birkenstock Holding is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Birkenstock Holding plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Birkenstock Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Birkenstock Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Birkenstock Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Birkenstock Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.79 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.72 | 37.72 | 0.00 |
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Birkenstock Holding Hype Timeline
Birkenstock Holding plc is currently traded for 37.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Birkenstock is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Birkenstock Holding is about 493.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.75. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Birkenstock Holding was currently reported as 17.79. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.46. Birkenstock Holding plc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Birkenstock Holding to cross-verify your projections.Birkenstock Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Birkenstock Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Birkenstock Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Birkenstock Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Birkenstock Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MUSA | Murphy USA | 0.14 | 5 per month | 1.77 | 0.06 | 3.04 | (2.45) | 11.17 | |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | (3.41) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.22 | (2.90) | 8.26 | |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss Co | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.64 | (3.67) | 8.59 | |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries | 8.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.46 | (3.27) | 10.72 | |
| AN | AutoNation | 2.70 | 9 per month | 1.53 | 0 | 3.06 | (2.20) | 8.76 | |
| MNSO | Miniso Group Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.27 | (3.58) | 9.84 | |
| VFS | VinFast Auto Ltd | 0.12 | 9 per month | 2.24 | 0.01 | 3.29 | (3.66) | 15.20 | |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | 0.12 | 10 per month | 1.71 | 0.03 | 3.36 | (2.55) | 9.62 | |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.85 | (0.01) | 3.01 | (3.30) | 18.44 | |
| HRB | HR Block | (2.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.90 | (3.51) | 7.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Birkenstock Holding
For every potential investor in Birkenstock, whether a beginner or expert, Birkenstock Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Birkenstock Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Birkenstock. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Birkenstock Holding's price trends.Birkenstock Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Birkenstock Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Birkenstock Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Birkenstock Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Birkenstock Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Birkenstock Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Birkenstock Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Birkenstock Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Birkenstock Holding plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Birkenstock Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Birkenstock Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Birkenstock Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting birkenstock stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Variance | 7.44 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Birkenstock Holding
The number of cover stories for Birkenstock Holding depends on current market conditions and Birkenstock Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Birkenstock Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Birkenstock Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Birkenstock Holding Short Properties
Birkenstock Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Birkenstock Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Birkenstock Holding plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Birkenstock Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Birkenstock Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 186.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 340.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Birkenstock Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Birkenstock Holding. Projected growth potential of Birkenstock fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Birkenstock Holding assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.827 | Earnings Share 2.25 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.155 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Birkenstock Holding plc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Birkenstock's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Birkenstock Holding's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Birkenstock Holding's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Birkenstock Holding's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Birkenstock Holding should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Birkenstock Holding's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.