Coastal Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CCB Stock | USD 111.34 4.43 3.83% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coastal Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 114.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.91. Coastal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Coastal Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Coastal Financial Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Coastal Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Coastal Financial's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.142 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.242 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.066 | Wall Street Target Price 138 |
Using Coastal Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Coastal Financial Corp from the perspective of Coastal Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Coastal Financial using Coastal Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Coastal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Coastal Financial's stock price.
Coastal Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Coastal Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Coastal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Coastal Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 101.9806 | Short Percent 0.1124 | Short Ratio 13.31 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 112.2135 |
Coastal Financial Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Coastal Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Coastal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Coastal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Coastal Financial Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Coastal Financial Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
Coastal Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Coastal Financial Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Coastal Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Coastal Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Coastal Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coastal Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 114.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.91. Coastal Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 111.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coastal Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Coastal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Coastal Financial Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Coastal Financial trading at USD 111.34, that is roughly USD 0.032 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Coastal Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Coastal Financial Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Coastal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Coastal Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Coastal Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Coastal Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Coastal Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Coastal Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Coastal Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Coastal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Coastal Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Coastal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Coastal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Coastal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Coastal Financial Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Coastal Financial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 719.8 M | Current Value 642.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 222.5 M |
Coastal Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coastal Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 114.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95, mean absolute percentage error of 5.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coastal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coastal Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Coastal Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Coastal Financial | Coastal Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Coastal Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Coastal Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coastal Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 112.27 and 116.53, respectively. We have considered Coastal Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coastal Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coastal Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8599 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9494 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 118.9148 |
Predictive Modules for Coastal Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coastal Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coastal Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Coastal Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Coastal Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Coastal Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Coastal Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Coastal Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Coastal Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Coastal Financial's historical news coverage. Coastal Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 109.19 and 113.49, respectively. We have considered Coastal Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Coastal Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Coastal Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Coastal Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Coastal Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Coastal Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Coastal Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.13 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
111.34 | 111.34 | 0.00 |
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Coastal Financial Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Coastal Financial Corp is traded for 111.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Coastal is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Coastal Financial is about 1103.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 111.36. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Coastal Financial was currently reported as 31.45. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coastal Financial to cross-verify your projections.Coastal Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Coastal Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Coastal Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Coastal Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Coastal Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | (0.23) | 20 per month | 1.29 | 0.04 | 2.92 | (1.48) | 7.09 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | 0.26 | 17 per month | 0.98 | 0.04 | 2.20 | (1.75) | 6.09 | |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | (0.08) | 6 per month | 1.31 | (0.01) | 3.66 | (2.50) | 5.98 | |
| CHCO | City Holding | 0.73 | 10 per month | 1.11 | (0.05) | 1.91 | (1.54) | 5.08 | |
| CLBK | Columbia Financial | 0.10 | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.06 | 3.20 | (2.23) | 10.71 | |
| BLX | Foreign Trade Bank | (0.43) | 9 per month | 1.38 | 0 | 2.74 | (1.75) | 6.57 | |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares | 0.18 | 11 per month | 1.65 | 0.04 | 2.95 | (2.92) | 10.05 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | (0.64) | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.13 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 5.90 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 0.26 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.03 | (2.49) | 7.97 | |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | 1.78 | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.07 | 5.13 | (3.29) | 8.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Coastal Financial
For every potential investor in Coastal, whether a beginner or expert, Coastal Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coastal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coastal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coastal Financial's price trends.Coastal Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coastal Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coastal Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coastal Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Coastal Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Coastal Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Coastal Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Coastal Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Coastal Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0452 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.85) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 113.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 112.7 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 5.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.25) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.43) |
Coastal Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Coastal Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coastal Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting coastal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Coastal Financial
The number of cover stories for Coastal Financial depends on current market conditions and Coastal Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Coastal Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Coastal Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Coastal Financial Short Properties
Coastal Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Coastal Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Coastal Financial Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Coastal Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Coastal Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 452.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coastal Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Coastal Financial. If investors know Coastal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Coastal Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Earnings Share 3.18 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.09 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Coastal Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Coastal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Coastal Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Coastal Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Coastal Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Coastal Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Coastal Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Coastal Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Coastal Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.