Principal Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

PFG Stock  USD 94.76  0.71  0.75%   
Principal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Principal Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength indicator of Principal Financial's stock price is roughly 62 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 29th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Principal, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 62

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Principal Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Principal Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Principal Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Principal Financial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Principal Financial's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.201
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.1987
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.3019
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.3797
Wall Street Target Price
92.9091
Using Principal Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Principal Financial Group from the perspective of Principal Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Principal Financial using Principal Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Principal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Principal Financial's stock price.

Principal Financial Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Principal Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Principal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Principal Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
81.3868
Short Percent
0.024
Short Ratio
3.89
Shares Short Prior Month
4.9 M
50 Day MA
88.2026

Principal Relative Strength Index

The Simple Regression forecasted value of Principal Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 93.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.80.

Principal Financial Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Principal Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Principal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Principal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Principal Financial Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Principal Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Principal Financial.

Principal Financial Implied Volatility

    
  0.51  
Principal Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Principal Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Principal Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Principal Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Principal Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Principal Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 93.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.80.

Principal Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 94.76  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Principal Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Principal contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Principal Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Principal Financial trading at USD 94.76, that is roughly USD 0.0302 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Principal Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Principal Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Principal Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Principal Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Principal Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Principal Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Principal Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Principal Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Principal Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Principal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Principal Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Principal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Principal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Principal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Principal Financial price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Principal Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Principal Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 93.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26, mean absolute percentage error of 2.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Principal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Principal Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Principal Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Principal Financial  Principal Financial Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Principal Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Principal Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Principal Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 92.21 and 94.88, respectively. We have considered Principal Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
94.76
93.54
Expected Value
94.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Principal Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Principal Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.0568
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2591
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0144
SAESum of the absolute errors76.8046
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Principal Financial Group historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Principal Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Principal Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
93.4294.7696.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
85.28107.54108.88
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
87.2790.6994.11
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
84.5592.91103.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Principal Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Principal Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Principal Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Principal Financial.

Principal Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Principal Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Principal Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Principal Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Principal Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Principal Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Principal Financial's historical news coverage. Principal Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 93.42 and 96.10, respectively. We have considered Principal Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
94.76
94.76
After-hype Price
96.10
Upside
Principal Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Principal Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Principal Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Principal Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Principal Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Principal Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.22 
1.34
  0.51 
  0.06 
10 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
94.76
94.76
0.00 
57.26  
Notes

Principal Financial Hype Timeline

On the 29th of January Principal Financial is traded for 94.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Principal is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 57.26%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Principal Financial is about 515.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 94.70. About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.74. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Principal Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.5. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.82. The firm last dividend was issued on the 3rd of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Principal Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Principal Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Principal Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Principal Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Principal Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Principal Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BNTBrookfield Wealth Solutions 0.00 0 per month 2.07 (0) 2.19 (2.78) 9.10 
EQHAxa Equitable Holdings(2.30)10 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.61 (2.40) 7.60 
KEYKeyCorp 0.00 0 per month 0.80  0.23  2.76 (1.44) 5.63 
FNFFidelity National Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.46 (0) 2.58 (2.27) 9.24 
CRBGCorebridge Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.24 (3.93) 7.68 
AEGAegon NV ADR 0.00 0 per month 2.17  0  2.39 (2.18) 11.41 
UNMUnum Group 1.38 4 per month 0.92  0.01  1.99 (1.68) 10.27 
EGEverest Group 0.00 0 per month 1.21  0.03  2.03 (2.24) 5.45 
RFRegions Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.91  0.16  3.11 (1.71) 6.55 
LLoews Corp(1.68)1 per month 0.67 (0.01) 1.39 (1.37) 3.68 

Other Forecasting Options for Principal Financial

For every potential investor in Principal, whether a beginner or expert, Principal Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Principal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Principal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Principal Financial's price trends.

Principal Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Principal Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Principal Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Principal Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Principal Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Principal Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Principal Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Principal Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Principal Financial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Principal Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Principal Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Principal Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting principal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Principal Financial

The number of cover stories for Principal Financial depends on current market conditions and Principal Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Principal Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Principal Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Principal Financial Short Properties

Principal Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Principal Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Principal Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Principal Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Principal Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding226.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments29.9 B
When determining whether Principal Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Principal Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Principal Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Principal Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Principal Financial to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Can Life & Health Insurance industry sustain growth momentum? Does Principal have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Principal Financial. Anticipated expansion of Principal directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Principal Financial demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.201
Dividend Share
3.02
Earnings Share
6.82
Revenue Per Share
70.241
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.222
Investors evaluate Principal Financial using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Principal Financial's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Principal Financial's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Principal Financial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Principal Financial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Principal Financial's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.