Silvercorp Metals Stock Forward View

SVM Stock  CAD 16.34  1.02  5.88%   
Silvercorp Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Silvercorp Metals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Silvercorp Metals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Silvercorp Metals fundamentals over time.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Silvercorp Metals' stock price is about 67. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Silvercorp, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Silvercorp Metals' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Silvercorp Metals, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Silvercorp Metals' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.32)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.16
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.605
EPS Estimate Next Year
1
Wall Street Target Price
18.669
Using Silvercorp Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Silvercorp Metals from the perspective of Silvercorp Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Silvercorp Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 16.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.40.

Silvercorp Metals after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 16.34  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Silvercorp Metals to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Silvercorp Stock, please use our How to Invest in Silvercorp Metals guide.

Silvercorp Metals Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Silvercorp price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Silvercorp using various technical indicators. When you analyze Silvercorp charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Silvercorp Metals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Silvercorp Metals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Silvercorp Metals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Silvercorp Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 16.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Silvercorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Silvercorp Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Silvercorp Metals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Silvercorp Metals  Silvercorp Metals Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Silvercorp Metals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Silvercorp Metals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Silvercorp Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.06 and 20.22, respectively. We have considered Silvercorp Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.34
16.64
Expected Value
20.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Silvercorp Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Silvercorp Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7675
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4742
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0413
SAESum of the absolute errors29.3995
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Silvercorp Metals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Silvercorp Metals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Silvercorp Metals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Silvercorp Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.7916.3419.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.7518.3021.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.7814.3518.91
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.220.220.22
Details

Silvercorp Metals After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Silvercorp Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Silvercorp Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Silvercorp Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Silvercorp Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Silvercorp Metals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Silvercorp Metals' historical news coverage. Silvercorp Metals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.79 and 19.89, respectively. We have considered Silvercorp Metals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.34
16.34
After-hype Price
19.89
Upside
Silvercorp Metals is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Silvercorp Metals is based on 3 months time horizon.

Silvercorp Metals Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Silvercorp Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Silvercorp Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Silvercorp Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.03 
3.58
  0.12 
  0.17 
6 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.34
16.34
0.00 
2,983  
Notes

Silvercorp Metals Hype Timeline

Silvercorp Metals is at this time traded for 16.34on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Silvercorp is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Silvercorp Metals is about 2148.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.51. About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Silvercorp Metals was at this time reported as 4.45. The company last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. Silvercorp Metals had 3:1 split on the 29th of October 2007. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Silvercorp Metals to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Silvercorp Stock, please use our How to Invest in Silvercorp Metals guide.

Silvercorp Metals Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Silvercorp Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Silvercorp Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how Silvercorp Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Silvercorp Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AYAAya Gold Silver 0.02 7 per month 3.45  0.20  8.53 (5.50) 18.97 
AIIAlmonty Industries(0.15)2 per month 3.96  0.16  9.41 (7.42) 20.82 
LIFLabrador Iron Ore 0.22 6 per month 0.81  0.07  1.59 (1.32) 6.10 
VNP5N Plus(0.53)5 per month 2.64  0.09  4.66 (4.50) 16.43 
TKOTaseko Mines 0.00 0 per month 2.42  0.27  6.34 (3.66) 16.39 
VZLAVizsla Silver Corp(0.06)10 per month 3.99  0.13  7.68 (6.60) 27.38 
ALSAltius Minerals 1.24 6 per month 1.96  0.15  3.88 (2.78) 16.64 
FOMForan Mining 0.30 4 per month 1.28  0.38  7.18 (2.56) 13.97 
APMAndean Precious Metals 0.46 8 per month 3.68  0.16  8.04 (6.51) 24.02 

Other Forecasting Options for Silvercorp Metals

For every potential investor in Silvercorp, whether a beginner or expert, Silvercorp Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Silvercorp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Silvercorp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Silvercorp Metals' price trends.

Silvercorp Metals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Silvercorp Metals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Silvercorp Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Silvercorp Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Silvercorp Metals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Silvercorp Metals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Silvercorp Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Silvercorp Metals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Silvercorp Metals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Silvercorp Metals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Silvercorp Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Silvercorp Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting silvercorp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Silvercorp Metals

The number of cover stories for Silvercorp Metals depends on current market conditions and Silvercorp Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Silvercorp Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Silvercorp Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Silvercorp Metals Short Properties

Silvercorp Metals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Silvercorp Metals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Silvercorp Metals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Silvercorp Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Silvercorp Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding206.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments369.1 M
When determining whether Silvercorp Metals is a strong investment it is important to analyze Silvercorp Metals' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Silvercorp Metals' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Silvercorp Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Silvercorp Metals to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Silvercorp Stock, please use our How to Invest in Silvercorp Metals guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Silvercorp Metals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Silvercorp Metals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Silvercorp Metals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.