VP Bank Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

VPBN Stock  CHF 84.60  0.20  0.24%   
VPBN Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of VP Bank's share price is at 51. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling VP Bank, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of VP Bank's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of VP Bank and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from VP Bank's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with VP Bank AG, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using VP Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VP Bank AG from the perspective of VP Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VP Bank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 84.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.20.

VP Bank after-hype prediction price

    
  CHF 84.6  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VP Bank to cross-verify your projections.

VP Bank Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine VPBN price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VPBN using various technical indicators. When you analyze VPBN charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
VP Bank simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for VP Bank AG are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as VP Bank AG prices get older.

VP Bank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VP Bank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 84.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VPBN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VP Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

VP Bank Stock Forecast Pattern

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VP Bank Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting VP Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VP Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.66 and 85.54, respectively. We have considered VP Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
84.60
84.60
Expected Value
85.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VP Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VP Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7967
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0467
MADMean absolute deviation0.5867
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0071
SAESum of the absolute errors35.2
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting VP Bank AG forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent VP Bank observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for VP Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VP Bank AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
83.6684.6085.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.7183.6593.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
83.4385.3987.36
Details

VP Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of VP Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VP Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of VP Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

VP Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting VP Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VP Bank's historical news coverage. VP Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 83.66 and 85.54, respectively. We have considered VP Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
84.60
84.60
After-hype Price
85.54
Upside
VP Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VP Bank AG is based on 3 months time horizon.

VP Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as VP Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VP Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VP Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
0.94
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
84.60
84.60
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

VP Bank Hype Timeline

VP Bank AG is at this time traded for 84.60on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. VPBN is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on VP Bank is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 84.60. About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.51. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. VP Bank AG recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.87. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of May 2022. The firm had 5:1 split on the 11th of May 2000. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VP Bank to cross-verify your projections.

VP Bank Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to VP Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VP Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how VP Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VP Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for VP Bank

For every potential investor in VPBN, whether a beginner or expert, VP Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VPBN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VPBN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VP Bank's price trends.

VP Bank Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VP Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VP Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VP Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

VP Bank Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VP Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VP Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VP Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VP Bank AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

VP Bank Risk Indicators

The analysis of VP Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VP Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vpbn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for VP Bank

The number of cover stories for VP Bank depends on current market conditions and VP Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VP Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VP Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

VP Bank Short Properties

VP Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when VP Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of VP Bank AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential VP Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VP Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.1 B

Additional Tools for VPBN Stock Analysis

When running VP Bank's price analysis, check to measure VP Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VP Bank is operating at the current time. Most of VP Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VP Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VP Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VP Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.