Union Insurance (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 29.95
| 2816 Stock | TWD 32.15 0.50 1.58% |
Union |
Union Insurance Target Price Odds to finish below 29.95
The tendency of Union Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 29.95 or more in 90 days |
| 32.15 | 90 days | 29.95 | about 15.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Union Insurance to drop to NT$ 29.95 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.97 (This Union Insurance Co probability density function shows the probability of Union Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Union Insurance price to stay between NT$ 29.95 and its current price of NT$32.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Union Insurance Co has a beta of -0.0998. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Union Insurance are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Union Insurance Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Union Insurance Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Union Insurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Union Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Union Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Union Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Union Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Union Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Union Insurance Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Union Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Union Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Union Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Union Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Union Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has accumulated 25.13 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.4, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Union Insurance has a current ratio of 0.71, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Union Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 73.0% of Union Insurance shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Union Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Union Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Union Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Union Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 223.6 M |
Union Insurance Technical Analysis
Union Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Union Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Union Insurance Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Union Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Union Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Union Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Union Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Union Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Union Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Union Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Union Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Union Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has accumulated 25.13 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.4, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Union Insurance has a current ratio of 0.71, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Union Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 73.0% of Union Insurance shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Check out Union Insurance Backtesting, Union Insurance Valuation, Union Insurance Correlation, Union Insurance Hype Analysis, Union Insurance Volatility, Union Insurance History as well as Union Insurance Performance. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for Union Stock analysis
When running Union Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Union Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Union Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Union Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Union Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Union Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Union Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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