Every cloud has a silver lining, and for Uxin (NASDAQ: UXIN), that silver lining is its steady upswing amidst a market downturn. Despite a negative price action indicator of -0.04, the company has shown resilience with a rate of daily change at 1.01. The Internet & Direct Marketing Retail company, part of the Consumer Cyclical category, ended the fiscal year in December with a valuation real value of $2.31, significantly higher than its valuation market value of $1.87. This resilience is further reflected in its accumulation distribution of 6.2K and a period momentum indicator of 0.02. Analysts have a hold consensus on the stock, with an estimated target price value of $2.82, a lowest estimated target price of $2.57, and a highest estimated target price of $3.13. Despite the hype value of $1.55, Uxin's typical day price stands at $1.90, demonstrating its ability to weather the storm. Today, we're discussing Uxin, currently trading at $1.87. Uxin has a historical hype elasticity of -0.32, compared to an average of -0.49 among competitors. It's predicted that the company's value will decrease following the next press release, with the stock price expected to drop to $1.55. This represents a projected decrease of -17.11%. However, given the high volatility of Uxin's stock price in response to news headlines, these predictions may not be reliable. The current daily expected return stands at -1.03%. Considering a 90-day investment horizon, the next significant announcement is expected in roughly 8 days.
The successful prediction of Uxin
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as Uxin, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of Uxin based on Uxin hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Uxin's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to Uxin's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project Uxin expected Price
Uxin technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Uxin technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Uxin trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...Uxin Gross Profit
Uxin Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Uxin previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Uxin Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Uxin's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Breaking down the case for Uxin
The big decline in price over the last few months for Uxin created some momentum for investors as it was traded today as low as
1.81 and as high as
2.03 per share. The company executives failed to add value to investors and position the company supply of money to exploit
market volatility in
March. However, diversifying your holdings with Uxin or similar stocks can still protect your portfolios during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 6.9. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Uxin partners.
Current Deferred Revenue Breakdown
Uxin Current Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be very stable with very little volatility. Current Deferred Revenue is likely to drop to about 309.6
M. Current Deferred Revenue usually refers to revenue that has been collected but not yet earned, typically from prepaid service contracts or subscriptions. This amount is considered a liability until the service is provided or the subscription period ends. At this time, Uxin's Current Deferred Revenue is very stable compared to the past year.
| 2010 | 464.1 Million |
| 2017 | 986.76 Million |
| 2018 | 973.79 Million |
| 2019 | 244.39 Million |
| 2020 | 32.42 Million |
| 2022 | 18.05 Million |
| 2023 | 344.5 Million |
| 2024 | 309.64 Million |
Every cloud has a silver lining, and Uxin (NASDAQ: UXIN) is proving this adage right. Despite a high probability of bankruptcy at 96.00%, the auto and truck dealership firm is demonstrating resilience with a steady upswing amidst a market downturn. The company's market risk adjusted performance stands at 0.5533, indicating its ability to deliver returns while managing risk. With a revenue of $2.06B and total assets of $718.65M, Uxin is showing signs of financial stability. However, investors should be cautious due to the company's high debt to equity ratio of 5.47%.
Some Uxin technical indicators suggest relapse
Uxin's stock recently displayed potential relapse signs, as suggested by key technical indicators. The standard deviation, a volatility measure, has dropped to 7.23, indicating a possible volatility decline. This could suggest less extreme price movements, potentially leading to a downward trend. Investors should closely monitor Uxin's performance. Uxin exhibits above-average volatility, and understanding these trends can help investors time the market. Proper use of volatility indicators allows traders to measure Uxin's stock risk against
market volatility during bullish and bearish trends. The heightened volatility in bear markets can directly affect
Uxin's stock price, causing investor stress as share values drop. This often prompts investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different financial instruments as prices fall.
Our Final Perspective on Uxin
Although other companies under the auto & truck dealerships industry are still a bit expensive, Uxin may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To conclude, as of the 11th of April 2024, we believe that at this point, Uxin is dangerous with
very high odds of distress within the next 2 years. From a slightly different point of view, the entity appears to be
undervalued. However, our actual 90 days buy-sell recommendation on the firm is
Strong Sell.
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Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time basis at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real taste for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI.
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