1st Source Stock Performance

SRCE Stock  USD 65.91  0.78  1.20%   
1st Source has a performance score of 11 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.64, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, 1st Source's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding 1st Source is expected to be smaller as well. 1st Source right now shows a risk of 1.25%. Please confirm 1st Source value at risk, kurtosis, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the semi variance and rate of daily change , to decide if 1st Source will be following its price patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in 1st Source are ranked lower than 11 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather weak fundamental indicators, 1st Source may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in March 2026. ...more
 
1st Source dividend paid on 14th of November 2025
11/14/2025
Begin Period Cash Flow129.7 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-276.6 M

1st Source Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  5,904  in 1st Source on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  687.00  from holding 1st Source or generate 11.64% return on investment over 90 days. 1st Source is currently generating 0.1883% in daily expected returns and assumes 1.2549% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 11% of stocks are less volatile than 1st, and 97% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days 1st Source is expected to generate 1.68 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.68 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.15 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

1st Source Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of 1st Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 65.91 90 days 65.91 
about 14.05
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 1st Source to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 14.05 (This 1st Source probability density function shows the probability of 1st Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days 1st Source has a beta of 0.64. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 1st Source average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding 1st Source will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally 1st Source has an alpha of 0.1453, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   1st Source Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for 1st Source

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1st Source. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.6665.9167.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
59.3275.5876.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
66.2967.5468.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
61.6464.6167.59
Details

1st Source Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 1st Source is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 1st Source's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold 1st Source, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 1st Source within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.15
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.64
σ
Overall volatility
2.18
Ir
Information ratio 0.10

1st Source Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 1st Source for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for 1st Source can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

1st Source Fundamentals Growth

1st Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of 1st Source, and 1st Source fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on 1st Stock performance.

About 1st Source Performance

By analyzing 1st Source's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into 1st Source's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if 1st Source has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if 1st Source has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
1st Source Corporation operates as the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products to individual and business clients. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 79 banking centers in 18 counties in Indiana and Michigan, as well as Sarasota County in Florida. 1st Source Corporation was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in South Bend, Indiana. 1st Source operates under BanksRegional classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1130 people.

Things to note about 1st Source performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about 1st Source for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for 1st Source help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Evaluating 1st Source's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate 1st Source's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing 1st Source's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether 1st Source's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining 1st Source's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating 1st Source's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of 1st Source's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of 1st Source's stock. These opinions can provide insight into 1st Source's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating 1st Source's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact 1st Source's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for 1st Stock analysis

When running 1st Source's price analysis, check to measure 1st Source's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy 1st Source is operating at the current time. Most of 1st Source's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of 1st Source's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move 1st Source's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of 1st Source to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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