HSBC Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HSBC Stock | USD 88.49 3.40 4.00% |
HSBC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HSBC Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of HSBC Holdings PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of HSBC Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of HSBC Holdings' share price is above 70 at the present time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling HSBC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 77
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.708 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.3433 | Wall Street Target Price 85.44 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 |
Using HSBC Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HSBC Holdings PLC from the perspective of HSBC Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards HSBC Holdings using HSBC Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards HSBC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of HSBC Holdings' stock price.
HSBC Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in HSBC Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards HSBC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of HSBC Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 66.1424 | Short Percent 0.0018 | Short Ratio 3.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.5 M | 50 Day MA 76.115 |
HSBC Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HSBC Holdings PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 88.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.49.HSBC Holdings PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to HSBC Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in HSBC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding HSBC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around HSBC Holdings PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of HSBC Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about HSBC Holdings.
HSBC Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
HSBC Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of HSBC Holdings PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if HSBC Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that HSBC Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when HSBC Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HSBC Holdings PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 88.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.49.
HSBC Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 88.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HSBC Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current HSBC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that HSBC Holdings PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With HSBC Holdings trading at USD 88.49, that is roughly USD 0.0177 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating HSBC Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring HSBC Holdings PLC options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 HSBC Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast HSBC Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in HSBC Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for HSBC Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current HSBC Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to HSBC Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of HSBC Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in HSBC. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
HSBC Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HSBC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HSBC using various technical indicators. When you analyze HSBC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HSBC Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HSBC Holdings PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 88.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 1.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HSBC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HSBC Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HSBC Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HSBC Holdings | HSBC Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
HSBC Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HSBC Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HSBC Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.22 and 89.76, respectively. We have considered HSBC Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HSBC Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HSBC Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2898 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3082 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7582 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.49 |
Predictive Modules for HSBC Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HSBC Holdings PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HSBC Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HSBC Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HSBC Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HSBC Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HSBC Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HSBC Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HSBC Holdings' historical news coverage. HSBC Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 87.27 and 89.81, respectively. We have considered HSBC Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HSBC Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HSBC Holdings PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
HSBC Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HSBC Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HSBC Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HSBC Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 1.27 | 0.05 | 0.56 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
88.49 | 88.54 | 0.06 |
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HSBC Holdings Hype Timeline
HSBC Holdings PLC is currently traded for 88.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.56. HSBC is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 88.54 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on HSBC Holdings is about 87.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 87.93. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 143.29 B. Net Income was 32.31 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 57.98 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HSBC Holdings to cross-verify your projections.HSBC Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HSBC Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HSBC Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how HSBC Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HSBC Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RY | Royal Bank of | (0.20) | 6 per month | 0.45 | 0.19 | 1.46 | (1.11) | 4.03 | |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | (1.73) | 6 per month | 1.32 | 0.02 | 2.15 | (1.95) | 8.12 | |
| GS | Goldman Sachs Group | (9.17) | 6 per month | 1.30 | 0.16 | 3.73 | (1.94) | 8.40 | |
| C | Citigroup | (0.58) | 3 per month | 1.54 | 0.13 | 2.81 | (2.24) | 8.93 | |
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.11 | 2.30 | (2.34) | 7.11 | |
| BAC | Bank of America | (0.40) | 8 per month | 1.36 | (0.03) | 1.68 | (2.16) | 5.64 | |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 1.93 | 14 per month | 1.19 | 0.10 | 2.74 | (2.21) | 9.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for HSBC Holdings
For every potential investor in HSBC, whether a beginner or expert, HSBC Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HSBC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HSBC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HSBC Holdings' price trends.HSBC Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HSBC Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HSBC Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HSBC Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HSBC Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HSBC Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HSBC Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HSBC Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HSBC Holdings PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
HSBC Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of HSBC Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HSBC Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hsbc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9537 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5887 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3466 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HSBC Holdings
The number of cover stories for HSBC Holdings depends on current market conditions and HSBC Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HSBC Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HSBC Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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HSBC Holdings Short Properties
HSBC Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when HSBC Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HSBC Holdings PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HSBC Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HSBC Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 284.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HSBC Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HSBC Holdings. If investors know HSBC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HSBC Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | Dividend Share 0.66 | Earnings Share 4.75 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 |
The market value of HSBC Holdings PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HSBC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HSBC Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HSBC Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HSBC Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HSBC Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HSBC Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HSBC Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HSBC Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.