1st Source Stock Market Value
| SRCE Stock | USD 63.16 0.14 0.22% |
| Symbol | 1st |
Is Banking space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 1st Source. If investors know 1st will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 1st Source listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of 1st Source is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of 1st that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 1st Source's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 1st Source's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 1st Source's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 1st Source's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 1st Source's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 1st Source is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 1st Source's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
1st Source 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to 1st Source's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of 1st Source.
| 04/24/2025 |
| 07/23/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in 1st Source on April 24, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding 1st Source or generate 0.0% return on investment in 1st Source over 90 days. 1st Source is related to or competes with BancFirst, Sierra Bancorp, Community Trust, FS Bancorp, Great Southern, Lakeland Financial, and First Financial. 1st Source Corporation operates as the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank that provides commercial and consumer ba... More
1st Source Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure 1st Source's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess 1st Source upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.41 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.41 |
1st Source Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for 1st Source's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as 1st Source's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use 1st Source historical prices to predict the future 1st Source's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0888 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1314 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
1st Source Backtested Returns
At this point, 1st Source is very steady. 1st Source secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0955, which signifies that the company had a 0.0955 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for 1st Source, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm 1st Source's mean deviation of 1.07, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0888 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. 1st Source has a performance score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.97, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. 1st Source returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, 1st Source is expected to follow. 1st Source right now shows a risk of 1.43%. Please confirm 1st Source value at risk, kurtosis, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the semi variance and rate of daily change , to decide if 1st Source will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.28 |
Poor predictability
1st Source has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between 1st Source time series from 24th of April 2025 to 8th of June 2025 and 8th of June 2025 to 23rd of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of 1st Source price movement. The serial correlation of 0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current 1st Source price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.04 |
1st Source lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is 1st Source stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting 1st Source's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of 1st Source returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that 1st Source has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
1st Source regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If 1st Source stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if 1st Source stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in 1st Source stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
1st Source Lagged Returns
When evaluating 1st Source's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of 1st Source stock have on its future price. 1st Source autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, 1st Source autocorrelation shows the relationship between 1st Source stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in 1st Source.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out 1st Source Correlation, 1st Source Volatility and 1st Source Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on 1st Source. For information on how to trade 1st Stock refer to our How to Trade 1st Stock guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
1st Source technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.